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Friday, March 24, 2006 12:00 AM

The disappearing sardines

As Lake Tanganyika in Africa grows warmer, its massive schools of silvery fish are getting smaller. And its villagers are saying goodbye to their way of life.

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Friday, March 24, 2006 11:13 AM

Some ideas

I've been involved in fisheries for decades, and have spent a lot of time investigating the many possible reasons for declines of fish and in the predators of fish. And while I have no doubt that we're experiencing global warming due to human activity, this article has glaring gaps in its evidentiary arguments, and presents several possible alternative reasons as to why the fish might—and I stress might—be declining.

If there were any measurements which show a decline in algae production or zooplankton concentration, those would be important. Clearly the fact that nobody seems to have a handle on what the actual harvest is in the first place kind of begs the question of whether there's anything here to be concerned about. But if we accept the premise that the populations of fish are declining, it may well have to do with the increased fishing and the increased fishing technology which is allowing fishermen to very possibly overfish their stocks.

We've seen this in so many fisheries around the world, it's either naive or intentionally disingenuous to barely mention it and seem to pin the blame on global warming. (I'm not a global warming apologist, I'm writing a book which deals with it in large part.) Increasing human populations depending on fixed resources to keep up by improving technology and thus increasing catch rates has taken one fishery after another over the edge. It may well be that such a lack of foresight and regulation is doing the same, sadly, to this fishery. Unfortunately, there is likely no way to manage this fishery since the politics are so complex and chaotic. Outlawing the big boats with the big lights and motors would probably be the greatest help in the short term, but like politics everywhere it probably wouldn't fly because those fleet owners have the political clout by virtue of their relative wealth.

No easy answers, I'm afraid, but pretty shaky ground upon which to build a case that global warming is the culprit. I think this article could have used a little more research and a few more caveats.

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