Alternate energy sources may replace fossil fuels, but even at a 1:1 replacement ratio they will never have the transportability of crude oil. What that means for the global economy, is that remote centers of manufacturing will prove impossible to run. Replacement energy sources may power local areas, but they are incapable of powering a large grid.

Coal is the first problem we have transporting energy. If Chinese goods power the global economy, how is all that coal going to get to China? There are some plans to liquify, but it remains to be seen how the crack spread on coal would operate. Then of course the coal fields are far from any seaports.

Once the global economy is dashed, it remains to be seen how much if any world trade goes on, and whether the politics of resentment, already underway in the United States, takes hold. Will poor energy countries resent their rich energy neighbors. When Hugo Chavez came to New York to offer residents free heating oil, did anyone notice? Has anyone noticed Bushes approval ratings, would some pollster like to put him up against Chavez? I think they are afraid of what they might see, not because Americans love the socialist dictators politics, but they see someone interested in providing them with the energy they need.

That Bush made his political career on the politics of resentment, brings to mind the old adage, he who lives by the sword. And Bush clearly lost Iraq, because he lost the oil. When the global economy collapses resentment and revenge and energy expediency will dominate the political landscape.

In the 70's every fourth streetlight was all that burned. Public lighting, gov't and commercial, was virtually non-existant. Interstate exchanges were dark or dusky. Nightlights outside homes were well-nigh unheard of--social pressures to conserve took care of that. 68 degrees was 'room temperature' in winter--75 degrees in summer. People actually used swamp coolers instead of AC. Lawns grew long. The 'layered look' was in along with 30MPG and tiny cars. Carpooling & serious interest in public transport was newly seen and actually popular. Rags like 'Mother Earth News' were best sellers & chock full of how-to-save-energy pieces, with gizmos that actualy worked, homes that cost 0$ to heat and cool, home-modified cars that ran 75miles on a gallon of gas.

Today we burn fuel like there is no tomorrow. Downside, it's a social predisposition towards 'no future' suicidal dispondency; upside is that there is a lot of wiggle room in the ol' national energy budget.

What will happen in the USA, this time, when the shortage drives the prices of transporatation energy higher once again? An ongoing transition period, hard times for many, yes, but not even close in character or reality to any 12th century fantasies of the chicken little's. Economic pressures will drive poverty and thus crime and homelessness higher; life will become just a bit chaeaper, security will become an even bigger industry. Public energy consumption will plummet to half of prior levels as energy prices gradually rise. Private energy consumption will also halve or more as simple conservation measures are popularized and adopted by the masses, just as happened in the 70's. Nuclear power will expand to fill the net deficit as needed between oil-electro generation and actual electo demand. R&D of alternative energy will finally kick into high gear with gratifyingly predictable results. American society will 'euroize' somewhat with home gardens, scooters, bicycles, mass transport. Leisure activity will likewise adjust to the new situationalities using european society (long energy challenged) as role models. Telecommuting, video communication will work to mitigate the expense of facetime. Personal computers will further increase their role in both leisure and business useage--cheap fun and cost-effective communication. City, high density real-estate will increase in value, distant surburban 'bedroom' real-estate will plummet. So long McMansions and the private commute for most of us. The increasing price of energy will regulate this social transition all by itself. The rich will vaugely wonder what all the fuss is about, of course. After all, the best defense against economic and social upheaval has always been secure wealth; just ask the yacht companies during the 30's. :)

Sum: we're humans; we adapt. This is not so much a upcoming crisis as just another challenge--just life blundering along as always.

Has anyone ever read Stephen King's The Stand? Great book on the aftermath of an evil flu that wipes out 99.9% of the population.

There's an interesting line in the book where a character points out that all of the objects of civilization still exist (from nukes to biohazard labs to blenders) and now the challenge was to think of ways to re-use or deactivate them all.

Similarly, the doomsaysers fail to take into account the fact that our American stores are already so glutted with merchandise that should the impending oil crisis break loose on such a wide scale, we'd already have a lot of survival tools on hand. Conversion will be about more than hybrid cars - it will be about methods like re-using glass bottles (as they were intended to be) instead of throwing them away. We won't be able to buy the new trendy clothing every season - gasp!

Also, let's not forget that population demographics will shift dramatically -can you remain in Maine or North Dakota without the ability to purchase sufficient heating materials? (These northern areas contain important agricultural regions, which will pose a significant problem to domestic food production.) Similarly, will young people still be able to (or want to) travel hundreds of miles away from home to attend college?

I do think that the class divide in America will become more pronounced, developing even further into a daily matter of life and death. Think of medical care, prescription drugs - such essentials may become even more prohibitively expensive, all but consigning the poor to die.

At most I think we can expect to go back to the 19th Century - it won't be pretty but we'll live.

We still have our pre-war infrastructure - depopulated cities, suttered factories, railroads, unprofitable coal mines. Ohio will be sitting pretty. Arizona will not. Nuclear powerplants will take up most of the slack with all their risk and dangerous waste.

This will take us back to about 1931 I think - of course, that wasn't a very good year. But it wasn't armageddon either.