After extensive research on this subject, I reluctantly found myself agreeing with the doomsayers. Peak oil has probably already happened, or is happening now - which gives us only a few years until the crap starts to hit the fan and we all wish we had prepared better.

This gloomy scenario will happen much faster if a terrorist hits a major refinery, or another hurricane wipes out or even disrupts our southern refining plants and pipelines for an appreciable period...which is looking increasingly likely.

The new hurricane season starts soon, and with global warming fueling the intensity and number of storms, we may see another highly damaging hurricane season.

Those who learned not to trust the government after Katrina are still, amazingly, taking the government's word that everything oilwise is hunky dory, and that there is no urgency. Incredible. All it takes is some reading and logical thought to realize the truth, even if your take is that it won't be quite as bad as the worst predictions.

The folks in these small towns, preparing for peak oil, are laudable - but doomed to disappointment when the entire country descends upon them because of the relative warmth of their climate. When many thousands are hungry or cold, they don't stop at niceties about who owns the farm, unfortunately - they arm themselves and take it from you. Yes, I foresee a fairly apocalyptic version of life after peak oil - one of vastly reduced law enforcement, bare bones public services, and widespread shortages of food and water; not to mention the lawlessness that ensues during times of extreme want. We thought a bit of looting was shocking during Katrina? Wait until the average parent in America can't feed their children or keep them warm - we ain't seen nothin' yet.

Considering that even the modest predictions about peak oil indicate widespread hardship, it is smart to plan with an eye to the inevitable. Id some rich guy is actually hoarding 500 million in cas for this very contingency, why not assume that he has highly paid experts who have told him it is the wise thing to do?

Better safe than sorry.

If these people are really that concerned about the depletion of the world's oil reserves, then they're going about things in the wrong way. I would agree that current alternative energy sources are never going to provide the energy we need to maintain a modern civilization, but building a bunker and growing a garden isn't the answer either. There is one energy source on the horizon that never gets mentioned in articles like these (which tend to focus on wind, solar, and biodiesel), yet it is the only source which has the potential to satiate our desire for energy.

I'm talking, of course, about fusion. Most people don't even have any kind of clear conception of just how much energy fusion has the potential to provide. One kilogram of fusionable material would provide as much energy as 10,000,000 kg of fossil fuel. Many people were put off by the cold fusion debacle of the late 80s, and see fusion as nothing more than a pipe dream. The biggest problems facing fusion power are not technical (although there are myriad technical issue) but rather political.

First, in America especially, the populace has an ingrained fear of all things nuclear. Proponents of fusion power must make it clear that fusion is of a fundamentally different character than its fission cousin. A fusion reactor would produce hardly any radioactive waste, and could never 'melt down' in the same way as a fission reactor.

Second, a lack of funding. Developing fusion power will be extremely, extremely expensive, as will the plants themselves, and no government today has the political will to devote the kind of effort and money necessary for fusion to become a reality. The fact that large energy companies have a stranglehold on government in many countries does not bode well, either.

There is some progress being made, the ITER experimental reactor is supposed to be constructed in Southern France, and, if successful will be the first truly viable fusion plant. What I predict we will see is a mad dash toward fusion power as the world's oil reserves dwindle. Never in the history of mankind has our species' energy usage decreased. Rest assured, the world's energy future lies in bold research and new technology, not a retreat toward an agrarian society.

For more info on ITER: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4629239.stm

It seems a bit shortsighted to do all this reporting and ingore nuclear power. Indeed, there's no nuclear powered cars, but new nuke plants a big-batteried-plug-in electric cars would go a long long way to weaning us from oil.

The tragedy of oil is that it is so useful for things besides burning. Just as we learned to build houses from wood rather than burn it, we must transition to a world where we make plastic from oil far more than we burn it for crude heat.

We probably ARE at, or near, the global peak of conventional oil production. But that doesn't excuse the blatant fear-mongering and outright hyperbole of James Howard Kunstler, Matt Savinar, Richard Heinberg, Jan Lundberg, and their peak-oil doom cult. (Yes, I've read all their blogs and books.)

Reading between the lines, it's clear most peak-oilers actually wish doom and destruction on the current world politico-economic order. Many adherents are marginalized in the current system. They relish their fantasies of halcyon eco-villages, and the collapse of globalism and existing urban power structures. Finally, they chortle, the era of the "common people" has arrived, free of government and corporate domination. As oil-refineries worldwide gurgle to a halt, they envision a paradise for healthy, physically fit, mostly vegan, do-it-yourselfers. It's laughable. It's pathetic.

Last time we tried such tribalism, there were a lot fewer people on the planet--and they still managed to brutally slaughter each other in large numbers.

Thankfully, it won't come to this. There will be a period of energy transition, and contrary to peak-oil doomthink, the solution will be part economic, and part technological. Here it is, pure and simple: $3.00 gas didn't stop SUV drivers, but it nearly bankrupted GM. $6.00 or $10.00 gas will kill or transform GM once and for all, put the road-behemoths permanently in park, and restore some sanity to American's profligate sense of energy entitlement.

The government may be forced to step in and deal with shortages. But that doesn't mean it will collapse. If you don't think the military has first rights to any oil in this country, think again. Martial law would be declared in any kind of 'doomsday' situation. There's a far greater chance of internment camps than eco-villages in that scenario.

Last time we had those kinds of shortages in WWII, the government issued ration coupons. We Americans have a lot of fat in our energy diet. We are SPOILED ROTTEN. We could easily, and I mean easily cut our fossil energy consumption in half, almost overnight if necessary. (Carpooling, public transport, change all light bulbs to half wattage, turn off heat to rooms we aren't using, ride bicycles, use organic waste in place of fertilizer, turn lights and computers off in office buildings at night, and stop WHINING!)

I'm here to agree on one point with the peak-oilers: we will be forced to cut our oil consumption. And it will paradoxically be great news for future forms of energy. Amory Lovins' Rocky Mountain Institue is right on the money. And the only reason why his plans haven't been taken more seriously until now is because oil has been dirt cheap!

Both private and National Oil Companies know that they stand to make 5-10 times the money on the downslope of the peak as what they have made up to this point. Think you hate the Oil Sheiks now? The West is about to get into a bidding war with China and India over oil. Prices could hit $150-200 per barrel or more.

Wickedly high prices will be the bitter medicine America (and the world) needs to go cold-turkey. The coming energy shock will not only prove peak-oilers wrong, it will kickstart the long-overdue energy transition like the "chorus of doom" never could. As prices rise, demand will plummet. It will only be a matter of time before new energy extraction and production methods take over, and energy prices moderate worldwide. Some of this is already happening, such as in Brazil, which produces almost 20 percent of its transport fuel from sugar cane, and it's already cheaper than gasoline. Or globally with wind power, now the fastest growing energy source. If enough alt-energy comes on line in the next few years, we might not even have to go through such a traumatic shock. And--there's a silver lining to the energy transition: a better, healthier lifestyle, with far less CO2 production!

Either way, sell your SUV, and buy an efficient hybrid car or diesel (not a bullshit luxury hybrid). Buy stock in clean-tech companies. Buy E85 or biodiesel if you can find it. Plan to telecommute in the future. But don't waste your money on survival gear, or your life by drinking the peak-oil kool-aid. Don't take my word for it, pay a visit to JD over at Peak Oil Debunked. His writing style is great, and you'll see why human ingenuity will ALWAYS find enough energy to power the future.