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Sunday, Nov 8, 2009
First unlike global warming there is not a majority consensus among the scientific community about the date when oil will peak. In the 1970s, the Energy Department did not come up with an accurate prediction of where domestic production would be in 2000. What makes anyone believe that without many authoritative studies that peak oil is this year or next year? I would say to the benefit of technology, we have come a long way in drilling for oil in places that were previously not a viable option. Most oil companies have had exceptional replenishment rates domestically for their reserves by being able to exploit more opportunities in the Gulf of Mexico. And finally on this point, I have not seen any indication from any oil company that exploration opportunities around the world have been exhausted. If so, there would be a whole lot of unemployed geologists. And thanks to global warming, all the trapped natural gas and oil under Siberia's permafrost is becoming more accessible.
Second, even if oil runs out tomorrow, you still have to deal with global warming. All that carbon in the atmosphere is not going to disappear simply because we don't burn oil anymore. So all that valuable farm land in California may be worthless as arable land shifts from changing climate and weather patterns. And since overfishing and pollution have already decimated the oceans and CO2 only increases the acidity of the ocean, I wouldn't look to the sea for your salvation. I would think Permian Extinction.
Personally, I wouldn't want to live in 13th century Europe or regress to the Stone Age (plus, those ages of man could not support the 6 billion people on this planet today). So, if that is the choice, I would consider suicide. The present is truly awesome. It could, of course, be more awesome with a teleport machine, hover cars, and space travel. But I am content with the bounty that oil provides. And there is not much people can do to avoid their inevitable extinction.
If you are a secular humanist, you could be at peace with oblivion or troubled by it (I would suggest the former). If you are religious, then you can be content that whatever happens is all God's plan. And hey, maybe you will die of Avian Flu or an asteroid will hit the earth before any of this ever comes to pass. Think positive! =)
After extensive research on this subject, I reluctantly found myself agreeing with the doomsayers. Peak oil has probably already happened, or is happening now - which gives us only a few years until the crap starts to hit the fan and we all wish we had prepared better.
This gloomy scenario will happen much faster if a terrorist hits a major refinery, or another hurricane wipes out or even disrupts our southern refining plants and pipelines for an appreciable period...which is looking increasingly likely.
The new hurricane season starts soon, and with global warming fueling the intensity and number of storms, we may see another highly damaging hurricane season.
Those who learned not to trust the government after Katrina are still, amazingly, taking the government's word that everything oilwise is hunky dory, and that there is no urgency. Incredible. All it takes is some reading and logical thought to realize the truth, even if your take is that it won't be quite as bad as the worst predictions.
The folks in these small towns, preparing for peak oil, are laudable - but doomed to disappointment when the entire country descends upon them because of the relative warmth of their climate. When many thousands are hungry or cold, they don't stop at niceties about who owns the farm, unfortunately - they arm themselves and take it from you. Yes, I foresee a fairly apocalyptic version of life after peak oil - one of vastly reduced law enforcement, bare bones public services, and widespread shortages of food and water; not to mention the lawlessness that ensues during times of extreme want. We thought a bit of looting was shocking during Katrina? Wait until the average parent in America can't feed their children or keep them warm - we ain't seen nothin' yet.
Considering that even the modest predictions about peak oil indicate widespread hardship, it is smart to plan with an eye to the inevitable. Id some rich guy is actually hoarding 500 million in cas for this very contingency, why not assume that he has highly paid experts who have told him it is the wise thing to do?
Better safe than sorry.
If these people are really that concerned about the depletion of the world's oil reserves, then they're going about things in the wrong way. I would agree that current alternative energy sources are never going to provide the energy we need to maintain a modern civilization, but building a bunker and growing a garden isn't the answer either. There is one energy source on the horizon that never gets mentioned in articles like these (which tend to focus on wind, solar, and biodiesel), yet it is the only source which has the potential to satiate our desire for energy.
I'm talking, of course, about fusion. Most people don't even have any kind of clear conception of just how much energy fusion has the potential to provide. One kilogram of fusionable material would provide as much energy as 10,000,000 kg of fossil fuel. Many people were put off by the cold fusion debacle of the late 80s, and see fusion as nothing more than a pipe dream. The biggest problems facing fusion power are not technical (although there are myriad technical issue) but rather political.
First, in America especially, the populace has an ingrained fear of all things nuclear. Proponents of fusion power must make it clear that fusion is of a fundamentally different character than its fission cousin. A fusion reactor would produce hardly any radioactive waste, and could never 'melt down' in the same way as a fission reactor.
Second, a lack of funding. Developing fusion power will be extremely, extremely expensive, as will the plants themselves, and no government today has the political will to devote the kind of effort and money necessary for fusion to become a reality. The fact that large energy companies have a stranglehold on government in many countries does not bode well, either.
There is some progress being made, the ITER experimental reactor is supposed to be constructed in Southern France, and, if successful will be the first truly viable fusion plant. What I predict we will see is a mad dash toward fusion power as the world's oil reserves dwindle. Never in the history of mankind has our species' energy usage decreased. Rest assured, the world's energy future lies in bold research and new technology, not a retreat toward an agrarian society.
For more info on ITER: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4629239.stm
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Salon headlines in your mailbox
