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• Tuesday, March 21, 2006 08:28 PM

  A Mote in God's Eye

  First unlike global warming there is not a majority consensus among the scientific community about the date when oil will peak. In the 1970s, the Energy Department did not come up with an accurate prediction of where domestic production would be in 2000. What makes anyone believe that without many authoritative studies that peak oil is this year or next year? I would say to the benefit of technology, we have come a long way in drilling for oil in places that were previously not a viable option. Most oil companies have had exceptional replenishment rates domestically for their reserves by being able to exploit more opportunities in the Gulf of Mexico. And finally on this point, I have not seen any indication from any oil company that exploration opportunities around the world have been exhausted. If so, there would be a whole lot of unemployed geologists. And thanks to global warming, all the trapped natural gas and oil under Siberia's permafrost is becoming more accessible.

  Second, even if oil runs out tomorrow, you still have to deal with global warming. All that carbon in the atmosphere is not going to disappear simply because we don't burn oil anymore. So all that valuable farm land in California may be worthless as arable land shifts from changing climate and weather patterns. And since overfishing and pollution have already decimated the oceans and CO2 only increases the acidity of the ocean, I wouldn't look to the sea for your salvation. I would think Permian Extinction.

  Personally, I wouldn't want to live in 13th century Europe or regress to the Stone Age (plus, those ages of man could not support the 6 billion people on this planet today). So, if that is the choice, I would consider suicide. The present is truly awesome. It could, of course, be more awesome with a teleport machine, hover cars, and space travel. But I am content with the bounty that oil provides. And there is not much people can do to avoid their inevitable extinction.

  If you are a secular humanist, you could be at peace with oblivion or troubled by it (I would suggest the former). If you are religious, then you can be content that whatever happens is all God's plan. And hey, maybe you will die of Avian Flu or an asteroid will hit the earth before any of this ever comes to pass. Think positive! =)

  —vadem Read vadem's other letters
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