Letters posted here are associated with the following article:

39
Letters
Monday, April 21, 2008 12:00 AM

Ask Pablo

Considering the energy used in auto manufacturing, is it better to keep my old car or buy a new hybrid?

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Sunday, April 20, 2008 06:25 PM

what about manufacturing costs?

I enjoyed the article; thanks.

I wonder, though, if this analysis is still a little over-simple. It's great to include the raw material costs, but what about the cost of manufacturing? The iron in the engine block has to be cast; it has to be machined; it has to be bolted into the car frame - and all of these things are done in factories by big machines. Where does the iron come from? Is it recycled or produced from ore? What goes into recovering scrap metal? What goes into the trucks and cranes and trains involved in extracting raw material from the earth? Do the same analysis for battery anodes, window glass, copper wire, radial tires, etc. This all turns into a really big and complicated connected graph, with many many inputs and outputs.

Central planning economies tried (still try, I guess) to figure this stuff out; but as far as I know, they never did very well at it. We're left mostly having the market sort out the relative costs and benefits - with the (big) caveat that a lot of costs - like the cost to the environment - aren't properly taken into consideration. I'd love to see who's done the most work trying to figure this out, and how far they got.

It's a really fascinating and important subject. Too bad it doesn't occupy more of our attention. Now I have to go find out if Hillary has been doing more shots or if Obama has done any work on his bowling score.

Sunday, April 20, 2008 06:42 PM

The Early Adopter Fallacy

It's the way of our consumer society. Produce something and convince shoppers that it is much better than what they already have. Then convince consumers to part with an unreasonably large amount of money for the privilege of possessing that item.

If you run the numbers on, say, a new Prius vs. a new Civic with similar trim levels, it is clear that gas prices would need to rise significantly from current levels before the differential pencils-out. You can capture most of the fuel economy benefits with the Civic and save several thousand dollars.

As good as the hybrid technology is, it's not the ultimate. Automobile engines continue to improve. High-efficiency clean diesels seem to be the next new thing and they look pretty good. In 5 years, the new Prius that you buy today may seem terribly outdated. At that point, you could turn it in and take the depreciation hit and pay the premium for whatever is the slick technology at that time.

Alternatively, you could buy a used car that's a few years old...perhaps a Honda Civic, planning to get 6 or 7 years out of it. By the time you're ready to replace it with a newer used car, you'll be buying something that probably isn't even available yet (better than that new Prius that you have your eye on). And you'll be getting it at a discount.

Sunday, April 20, 2008 06:51 PM

Alternative to scrapping

So essentially the damage is done and all you can hope to do is shift the burden to someone else. Unless you are feeling bold and have the car scrapped.

Or, you can convert it to electric (e.g. http://electrojeep.blogspot.com ) for your daily in-town drive.

Sunday, April 20, 2008 06:57 PM

And another thing...

If you decide to wait a few years before buying that 2009 Prius, the planet still benefits because someone else will have purchased and driven the Prius before you.

Sunday, April 20, 2008 08:05 PM

Two factors in cost

In Europe, it isn't unusual for fuel-inefficient cars (the biggest Mercs, etc) to be parked before they're worn out. @$7/gal, the per-mile cost is so high that it pays for someone on a tight budget to drive something more efficient, even if they can afford to purchase the big car; for the person who can afford the fuel, the increased depreciation (because a poor person can't afford the fuel, and a rich person doesn't want to drive an old car) is a relatively small part of the total cost per mile.

Part of the high "manufacturing" cost of the Prius is that almost all of the mechanical systems are new or seldom used concepts that require new factories and extra engineering work: electrically powered HVAC, electric power steering, electric motors to drive the wheels, etc. Those are one-time expenses that, from an oil burning perspective, already have been amortized by 100 years of oil-powered cars. The batteries, OTOH, are a unique expense. I can't believe that 300 pounds of exotic metal will ever be cheap, and I'm sure that there will be supply hiccups along the way (multiply 300 lbs of "unobtainium" by hundreds of millions of personal vehicles around the world).

Sunday, April 20, 2008 08:16 PM

Do you guys see how dippy this answer is???

As long as this person keeps this car, the world is ahead. What a silly answer, Pablo. What a dippy analysis.

When this car finally has to go, even a new hybrid will barely cover it. Look at the original letter, and at Pablo's response. Both have all the info, but the conclusion is nuts. Keep your old cars, and then thinl of somethig else. This article is dippy, Salon needs better.

Sunday, April 20, 2008 08:18 PM

Just wait, and something better will come along?

Joel29028, I thought as you did. I've waited since '93 when I graduated from college for a car that's green enough.

Well, no longer. When my Honda Accord gives up the ghost I'm getting a Prius. The purely electric cars look promising, but they've been in that state for years. It's time to bite the bullet and compromise on a hybrid. With any luck plugins will be prevalent soon...

Sunday, April 20, 2008 08:24 PM

"Given that your car is already built, we can write off the energy used in making it."

Duh.... Is this, duh, maybe the main point, duh, and, duh, does this concept have anything whatsoever to do with buying a new car????

How, um, duh, um, much energy are we talking about? Granted, this car was built back before Pablo started being able to type, and before people spoke with Pablo's probably snotty accent, but still... better not to reduplicate the energy... No? Pablo? Or? Wow, Pablo! Please explain.......

Sunday, April 20, 2008 09:04 PM

Seems sensible

over the next 116,000 miles, your car's greenhouse gas emissions will essentially break even with the emissions from the production and use of a Prius. I'm guessing your 22-year-old car probably has over 200,000 miles on it. If you're lucky, you can get another few years out of it. So if you can afford a new Prius, you are better off switching now.

Seems like a reasonable conclusion, based on the facts available to Pablo, unless the LW is gonna start walking everywhere or cast off the decadent comforts of the modern world. (Note that the LW didn't mention his economic cost; his premise is that he wants/is ready for a new car, so we can assume that he's willing/able to pay the cost of it. People like newer cars, mostly for the same reasons that they like nice clothes and tasty food if they can have them.)

Wow, timbuktom, that may be the most childish response I've ever read in Salon. And I've read the notorious w.e.s.

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