Letters to the Editor
droogoy
Published Letters: 590 Editor's Choice: 9
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Rust theory proven
[Read the article: King Kaufman's Sports Daily]
[Read more letters about this article: Here]Well the Bosox swept the Series, validating the "rust" theory I laid out in the two previous message threads. As I predicted, the Rocks would never regain their pre-Series form and would be swept in 4 games, or at most get one victory and go out in five.
The reason is clear: when batters lay off for so long their timing goes. It decays each day following a negative exponential law, peaking at > 6 days and more. The Tigers discovered the pronounced rust effect last year - they lasted five games after a six day break. The Rockies discovered it this year, swept in 4 games after an 8-day break.
As The Sporting News noted, this will force a re-thinking of how managers deal with long layoffs before a Series. The writer of one SN piece noted it would have been better that Hurdle get the Rockies on a plane to Tucson and play Triple A teams in live games. Rather than absud "squad games" in Denver.
As the writer noted, players never go full tilt in squad games - pitchers don't go really inside- for fear of injury, and they don't rip the pitch out at full speed. The hitters' timing suffers.
Hopefully, this will assist and guide the next team (AL or NL)
that endures a long layoff. One can hope anyway, because otherwise most Series will be snoozers.
Now, this is to take nothing from the Bosox, but come on. IF the Rocks had preserved some semblance of their timing at least they'd have made more of a contest of it, maybe lasting six games instead of suffering the ignominy of going out in four.
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Little fact neglected
[Read the article: King Kaufman's Sports Daily]
[Read more letters about this article: Here]"The Notorious W.E.S." wrote:
In the days before playing Colorado, Boston beat a better team than the Rockies--the Indians--and beat them worse than they beat the Rockies. And Cleveland was not on a layoff.
True. But you neglected to mention that the Indians had taken THREE - count them - THREE straight games from the Bosox FIRST! SO, again, rust theory is validated, namely that a team on a lONG layoff (> 6 days) would have won none of those games.
As I pointed out to you in the other Series thread, we are offsetting for equalization effects here. Add back the timing lost during the layoff, and the Rockies play at least a better game with fewer strikeouts (36 Ks in four games pretty well proves my point as well!)
THIS IS NOT TO SAY THE ROCKS WOULD BEAT THE BOSOX!
I am nowhere near saying that. I am only saying the Sox are NOT so good in their own right that they take four straight without the Rockies' own deficits from the layoss factored in.
In my book, even if the Rockies had lost NONE of their timing - they'd still have lost the Series to the Bosox in 6 games. BUT NOT IN FREAKIN' FOUR! The four game sweep pretty well shows the Red Sox were enjoying games against a team that was way off in its batting timing.
As Charlie Monfort himself noted this a.m. (in the Rocky Mountain News) :
"Are the Red Sox really THAT much better than the Rockies? I doubt it. Give us ten games with them and we take six. However, we only had four".
Essentially acknowledging my point (last thread on the series) that by game 5-6 the Rockies' rust would have worn off to the point they'd have caught up and PERHAPS won more games. Though even I would not have been as optimistic as Monfort, since I believe the overall stats show the Bosox were the superior team on paper, and as we saw, on the field.
Lastly, NO ONE is "making excuses" with rust theory - certainly not me (as I noted I am a Brewers' fan) - but we are merely bidding others to acknowledge the dire downsides of a long layoff - which as we know is FAR more critical in a game like baseball than baskketball or football.
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Maybe not
[Read the article: King Kaufman's Sports Daily]
[Read more letters about this article: Here]"Notorious W.E.S." wrote:
I got it. The Rockies can sweep the Phillies and D-Backs. Not to mention the Dodgers twice and Padres before that. But it would be impossible for Boston to sweep Colorado without some kind of hocus pocus like a layoff.
The Rockies swept the D-backs, Phillies etc. because they had high performance mojo working for them. They had the adrenalin pumping and 99% of it was translated into incredible and efficient pluses on the field. The layoff sapped all of that.
The Bosox got their momentum mojo going after the last Cleveland victory. Whether it would have been impossible for Boston to sweep Colorado without the latter having endured an overlong layoff, we may never know.
However, the probability is extremely high that it wouldn't have occurred- and the Series would have been far more competitive.
As 'The Sporting News' article pointed out, you simply don't go into an eight day hibernation (with just some batting cage practice and squad games) with zero loss of efficiency, batting skills - ....TIMING! Anyone who thinks a team is the same with or without a layoff is either a dreamer or smoking rope.
Given this, the Rockies that played the Bosox were surely an inferior team to those that swept the D-backs, Phillies.
The only way to really test this in the open is to nix any long layoffs next year. (And btw, FAUX Sports has to accept part of the blame for moving the opening game of the Series from its regular Saturday slot to Wednesday - to scarf up more viewer ratings. Serves the fuckers right that the Series ended in 4 and they lost an average of $70 mil in advertising for 3 additional - might have been - games. Might have been had the Rocks not lost so much of their timing)