Notorious W.E.S. wrote:

Won 5 of 6, scoring 51 runs up to July 8th for an average of almost 9 a game........They next played on July 13th and scored 10 runs.

So much for the layoff theory

Not at all. Pronounced rust that really impacts performance is a negative exponential function of performance ratio p and time t in days. Assorted tests disclose once t = 6 days (or more) the p-factor really discloses layoff effects that are substantial. For example, on base averages of 0.400 before the layoff will plummet to less than 50% of their value. ERAs meanwhile will be less affected for certain pitchers, but explode for others (as we saw for Francis).

By this paradigm a five day layoff, while seemingly large, is in fact not insuperable. Particularly as performance indices during the regular season are not as critical as in post-season. Hence, it isn't remarkable the Rockies had five day layoff and came back. But comparing that to 6 days (as for the Tigers last year) or 8 days (Rockies this year) in the post season, is like comparing chalk and cheese.

The test of a hypothesis is in the accuracy of its predictions. My prediction based on the rust hypothesis, is that the Rockies will recover their timing slowly, but each iteration will only increase the players' aggregate p factor slowly and not enough to overcome the Bosox 'p'.

Thus, the Rockies have a chance to go five games with the Bosox, but no more. Interestingly, and this takes nada from rust theory, the biggest chance for the Rockies to win will be tomorrow night when the Bosox p will likely be lower or equal than the Rusty Rockies on account of: i) adapting to a new stadium at higher alt. much colder temps., and ii) NO dh - your pitchers have to hit.

However, by the 2nd games at Coors the Bosox will have seen their learning curve catch up so to speak, so the equalizer effect (rust vs. 'newness') is now vamanos.

So enough already droogoy. Maybe the Rockies should have tanked a game or two to keep their timing.

Well, it sounds whacked & perverse, but you're essentially correct. Consider: if they had allowed themselves to deliberately "flub" 3 games they'd have majorly reduced the layoff time, actually cut it in half (to 4 days). This is below the 5 day cut off for the p-factor exponential decay hypothesis.

So, they could have had a high probability of putting it to the Bosox and extending their streak.

The Rocks dilemma was in going for the W in the NLCS series when they could take it - nothing off them for that- but this wil cost them the golden goal, objective at the end of the rainbow.

Tom G76 wrote:

What equation of rust explains 4 hits by Holliday last night against a few different pitchers? If Game 3 is 6-5 in the seventh inning and the Rox stop scoring, would that count as rust?

Tom, Tom! Just as in the case of decay of atoms, according to the law:

N = N(o) exp (-pt)

where p is performance (activity) - so also with performance decay in an ensemble of players. (with certain corrective factors c1, c2.....cN factored in to account for how exactly ball players diverge from the atomic example)

As we know, from the above example (for radioactive decay) we are dealing with a statistical law applied to the ensemble of atoms that can potentially decay. The decay eqn. never yields WHICH specific atom will decay after all, only what the law is for the ensemble.

Thus, Holliday's deviation from the player performance ensemble fits in along similar lines. Sure, his behavior last night diverges majorly from the rest of the Rocks, just as an atom may exhibit a prolonged activity A for any original atomic sample N(o) - but it does not repudiate the overall validity of the statistical law.

Indeed, just as an atom's higher activity (or more prolonged activity) exists independently of what the rest of the atoms in the sample are doing, so also it exists independently of whatever substrate we put the sample in (analogous to 'different pitchers' of the Bosox)

Now, as for Game 3. Rust theory declares there will be no 6-5 score, and not in the 7th. The Rockies will either win this game with at least a three run margin (recall the previous post) or they will lose it by more than a three run margin- implying the Bosox amped their learning curve for Coors Field far far above what might be expected.

We shall see. Anyway, please no more botheration. I am preparing a paper on this rust theory for the American Journal of Statistics.