Letters to the Editor
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Safe and not safe: Melfi, NJ, NY, AJ
Frankly I have no clue where the notion that Melfi is in mortal danger is coming from (unless it's Chrissy's impulsive hit on JT as threadbare foreshadowing). It's not even known that her identity has leaked beyond Tony, Carmela, Cusamano, and Kupferberg. Spoons mentioned her to Gigi in season 2 - though not by name - and both of those characters died. There is nothing useful she can tell the authorities (yet), which is the sort of direct affront which is absolutely required before any family would target a civilian....
All of Tony's captains are in jeopardy. Paulie most of all due to his - contradicting a prior poster here - FREQUENT betrayals of Tony and insults to Tony's position as boss, for none of which he has been called to account (writing the family gossip column in NY, the Pie O My painting, robbing Mr. Lombardo, shorting Carmela when Tony was in a coma, etc. etc. etc.!). Plus Tony hates and fears him. Conversely, as Tony's hardest and most seasoned soldier, he's also the prime target for the seemingly inevitable New York show of force. My guess is he'll redeem himself by stopping a NY bullet for Tony. But even that might not kill him OR save Tony.
Sil, Carlo, Patsy, and Bobby are also potential NY targets. Sil and Carlo whacked a NY captain (Fat Dom), thus far without repercussions. And Bobby may have botched his first + only hit, having left evidence at the scene.... I rate Bobby as the most likely to survive even a NY takeover since he represents the lowest value and the lowest threat.
Phil L. is not safe. His vendetta is affecting his judgment, and his consiglieri (I forget his name) is even more bloodthirsty than he. Plus he has heart disease (ditto for SIl). The most likely scenario for his survival is as undisputed boss of both Brooklyn and NJ, since it seems to be all he'll settle for.
Tony S. is not safe. He can neither defeat Phil L., nor can he peacefully surrender. Barring some miracle, he's likely in a (losing) fight for his life. One can only hope for his high flash if insight last week holding some strategic key to his escape, but those hopes are slim.
That leaves AJ. We're all pulling for him, I think, and it seems he can still find a way out. The greatest danger to him (and vice versa) are the two Jasons. Like Melfi, he's a civilian, so it's basically impossible that NY would target him. The Feds are a different story, which would put him, Tony, and AJ's little crew in jeopardy, which could in turn put AJ on the hit list. My gut feeling is he'll survive and find a way out, perhaps involving some sacrifice or other direct assistance on Tony's part, like a nice big package from Slava...