I saw "The Lovely Bones" at its first test screening back in April, and the audience was very into it. It's got a killer climax (haven't read the book, but fans of the source material who spoke up in the focus group after the screening said the movie's ending was pretty much exactly like the book's), great heavenly visuals, and a sure-shot Oscar nomination for Stanley Tucci's deranged killer/neighbor. Wahlberg is all wrong, though. The April print came with the obligatory "work in progress" disclaimer, but the tech touches looked polished and essentially ready to roll. Jackson is a perfectionist, so I'm sure he's just tinkering it down to the wire. The unfinished version definitely needed a few editing tweaks, but the film was otherwise fairly impressive.

Andrew,

I'm sure you'll like "Up in the Air," which I saw last week in Toronto (and watched being filmed in St. Louis last spring). But in your sight-unseen predictions, you should also leave open a spot for "Invictus." No, I haven't seen it either, but c'mon: It's Morgan Freeman playing Nelson Mandela in a film directed by Clint Eastwood. That's a triple dose of Academy catnip.

Now I've never read Salon, but based on the buzz I'm hearing - from people who haven't read it either! -I'm guessing it has to be a leading contender for website of the year. Right?

I like the Oscars show -- sometimes it's entertaining, sometimes it's a trashy spectacle. But I have never understood why movie critics participate in the horse race like sports analysts giving betting odds.

The Oscars have been proven, decade after decade, to have little bearing on the quality of films as art. And I thought such evaluations were the primary concern of critics.

Now, I can see that Andrew O'Hehir isn't just a critic but an industry commentator, which probably makes for better blogging opportunities and gives him more variety in his workday. As a reader, however, I am far more interested in the qualities of the movie itself than how well it can be wedged into an awards category. Any thorough discussion of the latter seems inane.

On the other hand, the Oscars do make a convenient entry point for comparing the relative merits of different films. In this case I enjoyed O'Hehir taking the opportunity to round up some of the contenders, even though I haven't seen about 90% of them (and given my haphazard movie-going habits, probably will end up seeing most of them a good 6 to 18 months from now).

So about the roundup: You missed an obvious selection, which is Meryl Streep as Best Actress for portraying Julia Childs. I haven't seen "Julia & Julia" but based on clips alone I would be very surprised if Streep weren't a front-runner, as this is exactly the kind of juicy movie role the Academy likes to spotlight.

I would also be very surprised if Christoph Waltz weren't nominated for Best Supporting Actor, and I think he ought to win it. That performance was what made "Inglourious Basterds" worth seeing. Waltz breathes wild life into the proceedings. Without him, the film would be just an above-average Tarantino lark.

I'm not sure why you even bothered mentioning "Star Trek" as a Best Picture contender unless you're trying to appease nerds or something. Perhaps having made a lot of money will be enough to get it a nomination, but otherwise it doesn't even come close to the usual formula of a prestige movie with socially redeeming value. Plus the characters and plot style are old 'n' familiar, so in spite of the new-cast "reboot," it would be a rather questionable selection. Maybe they'd throw it a nomination to appease fans. (Like I said, this is horse-race talk...)

I'm looking forward to the new Coen Brothers movie. They're at their prime and it looks to me as if they know it, because they're not wasting any time between movies.

His latest, Invictus, should be out in time for the Oscars. And it's got Morgan Freeman playing Nelson Mandela. Unless Matt Damon's South African accent is even worse than I think it's going to be (and that's pretty bad), how can it not be a lock for a nomination at least?

And the "Oscar derby" is important to you...why?

I'm not a member of the Academy. I don't plan on being a member of the Academy. So why should I care what their favorite movies are?

Perhaps the most important hits of the summer season were/are "Julie & Julia" and "The Informant!" Why? Because they are clearly made with demographics beyond the coveted 12-25-year-old-males in mind, and they are making money!

As a result, I predict that both will be well-rewarded at awards time, including nominations for Picture, Actress (Meryl Streep, of course), Actor (Matt Damon), and Supporting Actor (Stanley Tucci). And the last of these will actually win!

For an Oscar? The film was entertaining enough, good casting and some flashy direction, but the plot was nonsensical. I have no idea why some people keep pushing this as an Oscar contender, except for the fact that they're desperate to have a crowd-pleasing "Dark Knight"-style nominee to get people to tune into the Oscar broadcast after last year's snoozefest.

I watched The Dark Knight in a theatre, and recently watched it again at home, on HBO. And I gotta say, what an absolutely dreadful movie. The noise and action in the theatre surely distracted me from what is clearly an incoherent mess the second time around.

I did come away even more saddened that Heath Ledger is gone. He really did one hell of a job, and was, without a doubt, the only one of two bright spots in an otherwise shameless piece of shit. The other being Michael Caine, whose professionalism is exceeded only by his patience in the act of working in such muddled, waterheaded mess.

Are you serious? Indie has BEEN dead, since "indie" became a genre and not just a means of production. There is nothing "indie" about a formula film and that is exactly what "indie" has become. Take a few character actors, set their dysfunctional relationships (illustrated by quirky banter) to a sound track by the Pixies, advertise it with a poster featuring scribbly-block text to give it that amateur, home-made feel and hell, throw in a road trip too. BAM indie movie. borrrrrrrrrrring.