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I agree with the comment that Iraq with Bush is more satire than drama, though tragic nonetheless.
One metaphor is not enough for such a large farce, so here are a few.
The war's finances from "pay for itself" through the $200M cost being "wildly off the mark" on the high side, to tax cuts for the wealthy - the numbers make no sense whatsoever. The only way this can balance is using "Bistromath". Watch the numbers dance in the spread sheet!
The administration's "stay the course" in the face of continuing degradation of the situsation, is only logical if they are waiting for a very improbable event, like the reincarnation of Lawrence of Arabia, or the Woodstock music festival showing up in Baghdad through a worm hole. Thus, they are clearly depending upon an "infinite improbability" system to make Iraq a peaceful democracy.
James Baker III is charged with finding a solution to the Iraq debacle. It is taking longer to get to the answer than expected. Baker plays the role of "Deep Thought". Just like in Hitchhiker's, we THINK we know what his answer will mean, i.e., how to really stabilize Iraq, but we don't actually understand the question do we? I think we will find out, parallel to the book, that the real question was: "How can we save the petulant, maladroit Dubya's butt as yet one more time"?
The ultimate answer? Paint Iraq "blue", i.e., blame the Democrats, set up a "Somebody Else's Problem" field and make Iraq disappear for two years.
I don't have an analogy to propose, just some advice from the books to quote: "Be not too eager to deal out death in the name of justice, fearing for your own safety."
The horror, the horror....
I probably haven't seen the movies enough, and I know that I have not read the books all the way through to draw a metaphor to the war in Iraq, but let's re-cast the LOTR trilogy with a War twist-
George Bush......Gandalf or Saruman (depending on your political views)
Donald Rumsfeld..... Gollum
Dick Cheney........ Wormtongue
Osama bin Laden.....Shelob
al qaeda............Ringwraiths
Hobbits......... The Iraqi civilians
Frodo...............Any U.S. Soldier
Bob Woodward........Bilbo Baggins
Bush is Grima Wormtongue whispering misinformation into the ear of Theoden (the American populace). He uses the death of Theodred (September 11th 2001) to instill a sense of fear and impending doom so that Theoden is willing to give up all his claims and lands (rights to due process and privacy) for a false sense of security. This ultimately serves the will of Wormtongue's master Saruman (Cheney and his neocon cronies) who plan to completely take all of Rohan for their master Sauron(American Corporations).
Perhaps an appropriate analogy could be to Aesop's fable of the boy who cried wolf.
How many times shall we hear that this is a fight for civilization itself, before it rings hollow to all?
How many times shall we hear that we have enemies who are evil, before it rings hollow to all?
How many times shall we hear that dissenters support the enemy, before it rings hollow to all?
How many times shall we hear that Saddam Hussein was the world's greatest menace, before it, too, rings hollow?
And if true threats emerge in Iran or North Korea, how will we know to separate a boy's overzealous cry of danger from a true danger?
And those who think we need to invest still more troops and treasure in Iraq to do the job right, just more men and horses, and they can never put it back together again.
In a neat little twist, Bush gets to be Humpty himself in Through the Looking Glass (apologies to Lewis Carroll):
"When I say we don't torture captives," Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, "it means just what I choose it to mean -- neither more nor less."
Tolkien's mythology bears little resemblance to the events of the day, and the Lord of the Rings even less so.
However, one can find clear parallels with Star Wars, Episodes 1 through 4.
Dick Cheney is Chancellor Palpatine/Darth Sidious/the Emperor. It is so easy to imagine him deep in his undisclosed location whispering through that evil half-grin; "it is all going as I have foreseen."
Osama Bin laden is Count Dooku. He foments an attack on the republic, only to be secretly working with Darth Sidious. Why haven't we found him? Because he is closeted away with Cheney, "Good news Master, the war has begun." Besides, he kind of looks like Christopher Lee.
Al Gore is Obi-Wan Kenobi. He puts up the good fight only for so long, then goes off to be a hermit in the desert someplace only to return again years later.
John Edwards is Anakin Skywalker. Gore's protégé, but may have secretly undermined the Kerry Campaign. We also have not heard from him much lately, he may have already been turned.
Hillary Clinton as Padame. Of course that would mean that Edwards was having a secret affair with her, but that's not out of the range of possibility.
Bill Clinton, hands down, Mace Windu, the baddest Motherf..ing Jedi ever.
Jimmy Carter as Yoda.
And last, and most definitely least:
Jar Jar Binks. Only one person fills this role of absolute stupidity; George W. Bush.
There has been some mention of Bush as Sauron...but I see a bigger analogy with Sauramon.
Susceptible to manipulation by other sources of greater power, he devotes all of his energy to war.
He turned his back on people that were his friends (what happend to bipartisanship?) and betrays his allies (oh Europe...Middle Earth as it were, "Old Europe" with all its little friends and all its little dreams).
In his ascent to power he makes a deal with the Sauron (the neo-con kabal who secured the 2000 election, and is aptly fronted by Cheney, holed up in his "secure location" in Mordor), and turns to an evil orc army for his forces (I do NOT think the US Army is evil...I am referring more to the mercenary forces of Haliburton, which strikes me as dangerous and scary).
Then he scourges the once-green earth in order to wage his foolish war. There's even a New Orleans style flood, induced by the wrath of nature and putting a damper on the war machine. Ultimately the Ents (global warming and environmental catastrophe) will come out of the perishing woods and start laying the whole place low.