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Tuesday, December 13, 2005 12:00 AM

Betting on bird flu

A growing market allows investors to make money off of disease and natural disasters. And so far, their predictions have been dead-on.

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  • Tuesday, December 13, 2005 04:57 AM

    muddied the waters

    "We just have to wait until the Homeland Security Department offers more guidance. Their new security-alert color schemes have muddied the waters too much for us to put together an accurate contract."

    Oh, come on. The Homeland Sec color schemes had nothing to do with the risk to the USA of a terrorist attack. It was a measure of W's popularity - if his popularity went down, the alert colors got more frantic. And it worked! Against all odds, amid unprecedented arrogance and incompetence, he got reelected.

    Notice how the colors have gone away since the election.

    Seeing that it's pretty predictable, sounds to me like not a very good venue for wager.

    Say - what were these same people saying about a terrorist attack in early September 2001? Not likely, that's what they were saying. At least they weren't reading their Presidential Briefings.

    And what were they saying in late 2002/early 2003? Nukes in 45 minutes. I'm still waiting for the nukes.

    Every single one of these predictions has been way way way wrong. Who in their right mind would take any guidance from the administration, except to predict the opposite of what they say?

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