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Solipsy

Published Letters: 40
Editor's Choice: 7

Tuesday, September 11, 2007 08:20 AM
Original article: This Modern World

@Taliesan et.al.

Please consider:

A quote from Mortgage Insider, an industry website:

“Defaults are on the rise in most parts of the country, but it should be recognized that it is not always the case of a homeowner losing his or her home but is often the case of an investor gambling on a continued increase in home values and losing that gamble,” said Doug Duncan, Mortgage Bankers Association’s chief economist and senior vice president of research and business development.

“California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida were among the states with the fastest home price appreciation over the last five years. This rapid price appreciation attracted both speculators and home builders, a volatile combination that led to an over-supply of homes that was beyond the capacity of the local populations to support. When this over-supply became apparent and prices began to fall, many of these investors simply walked away from their mortgages,” Duncan said.

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A quote from The Miami Herald, Aug. 31, 2007:

''The areas with the fastest growing delinquencies are the areas dominated by investor properties,'' said Jay Brinkmann, a research and economics vice president at the trade group. (Mortgage Bankers Assoc.)

Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada also happen to be among the states experiencing the most rapid increase in delinquency rates nationwide, as the mortgage and housing markets suffer through a major downturn.

The MBA looked at home starts during the past four years and determined California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada were among the states with the most home starts per person during that time. Investors and speculators followed the home builders into the states, Brinkmann said, hoping to cash in by buying homes and holding them for a period of time before selling at a profit.

The estimates of how many Florida buyers are speculators -- who bought so they could cash in on rising home prices -- have ranged from 30 percent to more than 70 percent.”

****************************************

Please notice the ridiculous variance in the estimate! Many loans made, especially the “exotic kinds” were (mis)represented to be for “owner occupied” property. By claiming this, the speculator could get full financing/no money down. Now, with nothing to lose, they can now just walk away. You’re buying into the MSM storyline of irresponsible poor people. It’s not. It’s white-collar crime, but it greatly benefits the actual criminals if WE all side with them and bail them out because of what those “stupid, irresponsible poor people did.”

Start reading between the lines. Where are the droves of newly homeless? Why, if ARMS are adjusting, hasn’t the prime rate to which they are tied, risen as well, which would explain why they are suddenly unaffordable? Balloons don’t come due till the end of the mortgage, so we shouldn’t see problems there yet. The Consumer Price Index has had no drastic fluctuation which would account for a vast and sudden default across the board like this. We’ve had no national swath of layoffs. What percentage of loans are three-year-old 3-2-1 buydowns suddenly on their highest, most unaffordable payment level? Enough to cause this massive sinking?

This is an intentional “aw, forget it” by people who were gambling. On paper, they claimed all sorts of crazy sh*t. In reality, they were the idiots who called those “You can get rich quick in real estate with no money down!” late-night infomercials. The idea was buy it, hold it briefly, then sell it for appreciation profit. Appreciation profit hit its ceiling in most markets (as the person from Orlando describes and as the "experts" from the Mortgage Bankers Association admit) and the “get-rich-quickers” walked away. They’re leaving US with the mess, just like with the S&L collapse of the 80’s.

The beauty is that people really ARE buying into the narrative that it was stupid, irresponsible poor people.

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