Well, David, that's the trouble with relying om memory. I was 19 when Mossedegh was over thrown, and my memory was that he was assassinated. Sorry. Did I ever say that the US was dependent on Middle East oil? What I think I said was that Big Oil is dependent for a lot of its profits on Mid East oil. Iraq still has lots of oil that can be pumped out of the ground for a buck or so a barrel, so it is very desirable for Big Oil to "own" that oil, just like Iran in the '50's. I don't think that we are going to be able to hold on to Iraq, just like we were unable to hold on to Iran. Installing tyrannical puppet governments (Saddam was once our puppet, like the Shah) so that most of the income from the oil flows to Big Oil probably won't work anymore. If we give up our big military and concentrate on being energy independent we will be a lot better off in the long run. Too many really rich folks will suffer, however, so that is very unlikely. We'll just have to go through a lot of shit and learn the hard way.

It's a good idea to do a NIE on the impact of global warming on the security of the US. However, this should not be construed as some method maintaining the status quo of the present climate, whatever that is. The climate is always changing, and a large and rich country like the US, which has a tremendous ability to do good science, should be preparing for change. The idea that whatever climate conditions presently exist should persist for all time is a delusion. If mankind had not done extensive deforestation for the last 10,000 years and more recently burnt vast amounts of fossil fuel, we would be well into another ice age. We might have "overdone" the fuel burning, and are promoting more rapid changes than are comfortable for many people. Knowing how these changes might affect us could be useful, but will having convincing proof that the Southwest is in a 100 year drought, or that the Gulf Coast will be inundated with Force 5 hurricanes frequently, change the behavior of developers or their clients. If it gives ammunition to Congress for changing the laws about recompensing people for losses, or allows insurance companies to charge for increased risk it might do some good. However, short term gain always trumps long term disaster, so I don't have much hope.

Al Gore is full of it. I recently read two books (which I highly recommend) about climate. One is "Climate Change in Prehistory, the End of the Age of Chaos" and "Plows, Plagues, and Petroleum". There is no doubt that humans have strongly affected the climate for the last 10,000 years (Holocene). If humans had not cut down forests, and more recently burnt lots of fossil fuels, we would be entering an ice age. As "Climate Change..." points out ice ages are characterized by chaotic climate, dry, dusty, and cold. The Little Ice Age from about 1350 to 1850 might have been Gaea's most recent attempt to get us into an ice age, which we appear to have temporarily circumvented by making lots of greenhouse gases. In the last two million years there have been at least 50 ice ages, which covers the evolutionary history of the human race.

As you point out the Earth's climate is controlled by solar cycles, which includes variations in the shape of the earth's orbit around the sun, the tilt of the earth's axis and the precession of that axis. Those mechanisms are in the phase of a cycle which says the earth should be in an ice age now. Our intervention has temporarily prevented the inevitable ice age. Until 16 or so million years ago the earth had lots more CO2 and was much warmer. The only ice on the planet was the Antarctic ice cap. The crash of India into Asia created the Himalaya mountains, whose erosion created lots of rock dust which absorbed lots of CO2 and transported it to the sea. That se the stage for the ice ages.

Whether we like it or not the climate will change, mostly in ways that are inimical to our way of life. The Holocene is an aberration, perhaps unique in the history of the earth. It will not last no matter what we do. Since agriculture as we know it is impossible in an ice age, we will have to develop technologies that allow civilization to survive an "Age of Chaos". Lots of nukes, along with windmills, solar, and whatever our descendants will invent. Our present fixation of Global Warming is akin to the Neocons fixation on the Middle East, delusional.

Since humans evolved in an ice age we are well adapted to that environment, although if we lose technology it will require wearing lice-infested animal skins, and other fun things.

We are in Iraq to steal their oil. Failure to do that dooms Big American Oil Companies to second rate status in wealth and power. Bush, and most presidential politicians, gets lots of campaign money from Big Oil, which is desperate about Iraq. The whole thing about terror is bullshit. Our oil policies have created the terrorists, and as a nation that has to be part of our discussion. I'm not holding my breath.

I was flying my Mooney M20E from Logan to Idlewild in the mid-60's, which had been recently renamed Kennedy. I called approach control calling them Idlewild Approach. The controller was quite annoyed and said they were Kennedy Approach. It should be renamed, just like Cape Canaveral.

I watched the first two seasons, but stopped at the increasing ridiculousness of the show in the third season. I occasionally watch a few minutes of the latest season, but it is even more boring and ridiculous. It's time to kill it.