If you do not know what the following terms mean you have no business discussing global warming:

Thermohaline circulation

Younger Dryas

Older Dryas

Orbital precession

Axial tilt

Medieval Climatic Optimum

North Atlantic Oscillation

Interstadial

Little Ice Age

There are lots of others. The attempt to understand them will lead to a great increase in the intelligence level of discussions. You will also find that no one really knows what is going to happen. The increase in temperature of the Earth may or not be detrimental to humans. Or it may be detrimental to some and advantageous to others. But it is obvious to me that whatever effect we are having is second order in the moderately long run. Humans have survived the worst of the ice ages, and we will survive whatever comes. Living in this easy so-called civilization appears to have reduced our brain size by 10%. The need to survive another ice age or whatever shit happens will make us tougher and smarter. Wusses not welcome.

The problem is that although there is not much doubt that our emissions are temporarily raising the temperature of the Earth, all that fossil fuel will be gone in the blink of a geological eye. Then the emissions stop and the Earth reverts to its long term trend. Which is most likely an ice age. That is a much closer time horizon than the duration of the Little Ice Age, which lasted from about 1350 to 1850. The human race almost disappeared during one of the cold (and very dry and dusty) snaps. If all that the temporary global warming does is to raise the sea level a few hundred feet in the next century, that is minor compared to what a return to ice age conditions will bring. In order to prevent and cope with a full-blown ice age we need to be very technological, with the abilities to transfer vast amounts of energy to where we want it.

As far as the beliefs of most scientists, I have been involved in science long enough to see paradigms come and go. Most scientists denounced plate tectonics for over 50 years, but it turned out to be a good theory. Right now global warming is becoming mainstream, which is an indicator that it contains a lot of bullshit, since getting grants for research that opposes global warming are hard to get.

If you really want to reduce energy consumption, which I personally believe is a good idea, convince Congress to put a big tax on the use of fossil fuel. We travel too much, eat too much, and have excessively large houses. When you fly, say 2000 miles to visit your relatives or take a vacation, you are responsible for the consumption of at least 300 lbs of hydrocarbon each way. Cars and trains are no better. The last I heard is that solar panels take more energy to make than they will produce in their lifetime, but I use them on my sailboat. Cutting back is nibbling around the edges, we are screwed no matter what we do.

Well, it is real pleasure to read a letter from someone who at least knows a few technical terms. It appears that you might even understand a few of them. Discussing "problems" without the foggiest notion of the underlying science might be fun, but what the hell good does it do? When it became obvious that global warming was becoming a planetary "threat", I decided to get a little educated, as opposed to liberal bullshitters. Most liberally educated people don't have a clue about science. The first real science course they took scared the bejeesus out of them; they would have to actually sit down, by themselves, and use math to solve a problem. That is not fun, at least for them.

The world is going to change in unpredictable ways no matter what we do. The climate models that predict catastrophe are only models. I have used mathematical models to predict the behavior of simple (compared to climate systems) thermodynamic systems. I have quickly lost faith in mathematical modeling. Unless you understand the limitations of modeling, which requires a little work, you will not be able to separate propaganda from reality. There is no climate model in existence that even can predict what has already happened. And if the butterfly effect is real, there will never be one.

We need flexibility, and lots of smart people, to cope with the future. The US is rapidly becoming an inflexible country with a lot of highly educated stupid people.

BTW, modeling works pretty well for designing airplane wings, and other similarly complex systems, but you still have to have test pilots.

Well, this will be my last missive (missile?) on the subject. Be glad, I'm starting to bore myself, as well as many of you, no doubt. I know a lot of smart people, who are not scientifically trained. They have a hard time trying to come to grips with scientific concepts. The reason we need to be scientifically literate is that we have to promote policies that are positive and productive. Our policymakers are prone to respond to economic interests that are pernicious to the majority.

I live in a city that has the most Ph.D.'s per capita of any city in the US, so scientific literacy is rampant.

I must have gotten under your skin. Are you concerned about being classed as a liberal bullshitter?

It's true, I'm not much of a scientist, more of an inventor, but I have a scientific degree from a major technical university.