Letters to the Editor
bystander
Published Letters: 1627
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Leaving Iraq & blood and treasure
[Read the article: A nation of Rich Lowrys]
[Read more letters about this article: Here]Matt Yglesias' background is, I believe, philosophy. I've been following his "take" on leaving Iraq for about the last 6 months. He's about convinced me that the 'conventional wisdom' regarding a blood bath is, just that, conventional wisdom. We assume it to be true. He argues the possibility of an alternative - although he'd be the first to assure you he has no crystal ball. http://tinyurl.com/233ra4
... it's noteworthy that the more dire gloom-and-doom scenarios for an American departure from Iraq seem to assume that this is what will happen -- even though every single one of Iraq's neighbors has an interest in Iraq being stable and, failing that, has an interest in containing the chaos, we're supposed to believe that they would all act incredibly irresponsibly and disaster would strike. But while that could happen (anything's possible) there's no reason to regard it as likely....
I'm not so sure, the anticipated blood bath in Iraq (if/when we leave) isn't one of those unknown unknowns which, if repeated often enough, becomes 'truth.' It is a civil war. We are occupiers. I don't think anyone knows for sure what would happen to the 'body count' if we leave. And, most importantly, I don't think anyone has defined what 'precipitous' means. As in, what would be the earmarks if a withdrawal were not happing precipitously?
As for the origin of "blood and treasure," folks tracing its provenance have taken it back to the Monroe Doctrine, a 1774 resolution of the Continental Congress, and Aristophanes' Lysistrata, in the Manifesto of the Women of Athens, among others. In more modern (I use that term advisably) times, I've most frequently encountered in in the various treatises of those olde tyme economists in my history of economics text books. Used there, it, generally, refers to human capital and fungible resources.
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Betting on Iraq
[Read the article: A nation of Rich Lowrys]
[Read more letters about this article: Here]As for the corporatist take on Iraq, one might want to take a look at this piece also from Salon, today:
Are bond traders betting against the surge?
The latest statistics tell us that since the beginning of the "surge" in Iraq, civilian fatalities have fallen. The rate at which coalition forces have been dying or injured has also dropped. Oil production is down, but electricity generation appears to be up. Some brave souls have begun to suggest that the relative decline in mayhem can be taken as evidence that the surge is "working."
But the bond markets aren't having any of it. Ever since the surge began, the value of Iraqi state bonds, measured in terms of the likelihood of default, has been declining. For Michael Greenstone, an economist at M.I.T., the verdict of bond traders is a clear indication that the surge isn't working, insofar as it is likely to contribute to the future stability of the Iraqi state.
If shooter is betting with the market, he might want to begin hedging those bets.
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data mining
[Read the article: Joe Klein's defense of warrantless eavesdropping and telecom amnesty]
[Read more letters about this article: Here]GG: They might "break the law," but they aren't criminals.
Isn't that kind of like I have a "wide stance," but I'm not gay?
With respect to data mining, I've been waiting for ondolette, sysprog, KB4Hire, or others to weigh in on this. IMHO, data mining is the most egregious part of the whole deal. I'm not as familiar with that technique as other folks, but data mining has the potential to find the proverbial needle in a haystack. It's a very powerful computational tool when sicced on a pile of seemingly unrelated data. It also has the potential to 'find' some real spurious associations. Example: Grocery stores (via their scanners) can find all kinds of associations in consumer purchases and can use data mining to determine levels of inventory. Such as, IIRC, there is a strong association of Pampers (baby diapers) with beer sales. Is there a real correlation between diapers and beer? And, what might the connection between them be? Who knows. And, data mining, per se, can't tell you. But, the thought of the government turning some computer program that only sniffs out connections without any basis for finding them, loose on the unsuspecting public makes my blood run cold. I'm not sure how/whether/if data mining efforts produce confidence intervals, tests of significance, or other measures of "goodness," although I believe they must, I am much less certain the government would interpret/use those associations appropriately.
I'm hopeful that someone can help me understand what data mining means in the context of FISA, although I'm fearful the meaning will scare me to death.