Bwahahahahahahaha...

Seems like some of the wingnuts out there are conflating Sotomayer's ruling in a controversial case and her personal attributes. Just goes to show that they can't distinguish their ass from a hole in the ground.

I've only gotten through a few of the early posts on this one. But rationality means being able to see both sides of an issue and choosing your position from that standpoint. Salon was showing itself to be a "zine" of high standards for displaying the Republican viewpoint. But I applaud the reactionaries for expressing their opinions. This is obviously a presidential race with high stakes and high emotions. And very good reasons why. I only hope that Obama really can bring the change we need.

This point is relevant when discussing opinions. Greener's thesis is factually wrong. This has been pointed out ad nauseum in the fifty or so links to Nate Silver's rebuttal. There are two sides when discussing facts: true and false. There is, ironically, nothing rational about your rebuttal to the "reactionaries" at all.

Nate Silver's been plugged fifty times in this thread so I'll move on to my next question;

Isn't it probable that late undecideds don't vote at all? To me that would be the likeliest outcome, given that late undecideds are probably unengaged "low information" voters. I would then take the polls at face value and ignore the undecideds altogether. Any scenario projecting a 2-1 swing in favor of one candidate (where the biggest landslide scenario amongst decided voters is at highest 55/45) is completely unrealistic, in my view. Especially when the landslide scenario favors the other candidate.

In eight years, an idiot consultant will post an article about the McCain effect and use selected IBP/TIPP or Battleground polls as their indicator.

You have to lie and cherry-pick your data with subtlety and nuance, otherwise you might get called out. Nate Silver, heard of him?

OnPoint was the only polling firm to show the Tennessee race within 1 point on the eve of the election. Meanwhile, Gallup showed a 3-point lead for Corker, Rasmussen showed a 4-point lead for Corker, SurveyUSA and Pollmetrix showed 5-point leads, and Mason-Dixon showed a 12-point lead. Corker eventually won by 2.7 points, smaller than the margin predicted by all firms but OnPoint.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

Seriously. Who carves a B in their face?

Moving to Canada?

Isn't Michelle Bachmann anti-American? She's smearing the candidate for national leadership who is currently supported by the majority of Americans. By the hardline rhetoric, doesn't that render her a traitor?

Colorado: O 51 - M 43.5

Virginia: O 50 - M 46.5

Nate Silver's numbers (from fivethirtyeight.com)

Colorado

Unweighted: O 48.9 - M 44.2

Trend adjusted: O 50.7 - M 42.0

Post-regression: O 50.4 - M 42.4

Virginia

Unweighted: O 48.8 - M 45.7

Trend adjusted: O 50.7 - M 42.9

Post-regression: O 49.7 - M 43.9

Straight up projected winning odds

Obama wins Colorado in 94% of simulations

Obama wins Virginia in 93% of simulations

Coincidentally, he wins the national in >95% of simulations.

People used to think sport pundits were stupid for being so resistant to the use of OBP and SLG as better indicators for hitting ability than batting average and home runs. And those people were right, although "stupid" isn't the right word. "Stubborn" fits, I think, and its happening again in politics.

Hopefully the "MSM" catches up to the curve.

Rich Merritt is making fun of the people.. okay, conservative operatives... who keep bringing up the Bradley effect.

Silver's model has Obama at 95% chance of victory.

The gamblers are the IEM have Obama pegged at 0.84 to win $1

The other gamblers at Intrade have Obama pegged at 0.80 to win $1

With three weeks remaining, McCain needs to defend West Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, North Carolina, Virginia and Nevada. That gives him 218 electoral votes.

At that point, he needs to flip Ohio, Minnesota and Colorado and that still only brings him up to 257 electoral votes. Florida, Pennsylvania and Michigan are pretty solidly democratic these days, and frankly McCain is outside of shooting distance for Minnesota.

The economy isn't going to "turn around" in three weeks. Unemployment has been spiking and will continue to do so as companies tighten their belts in response to the higher price of credit. Only a fool would think otherwise.

McCain needs a miracle to win this race. Salon (and others) are just scraping for press.

I almost fell off my chair when Paglia railed against elitism. I think she's after Lynn Forester irony crown.

But that's beside the point. She's not qualified, either.

I mean, Hugo Chavez is popular in his country, but that doesn't mean he's great shakes.

It wasn't investor confidence that caused the bounce on Friday, it was shorts being forced to cover their positions because of the SEC's no-short order on 700+ stocks.

Now those shorts are probably selling their positions to anyone who'll buy.

I'm pretty sure the next McCain advertisement is going to feature Stringer Bell and Tony Soprano.

Is my Gmail account safe?

Is very far out of the mainstream and are almost certainly very different from you, whether you label yourself liberal, conservative, religious, or secular. It is worth mentioning that there are probably 30 million Pentecostals in the United States, however.