Letters to the Editor
Alan Lloyd
Published Letters: 294 Editor's Choice: 63
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Edwards is in an interesting (and difficult) position.
[Read the article: The politics of not nice]
[Read more letters about this article: Here]He's doing well enough with his message, and I agree with a lot of it. He's very short of resources, though, and has not drawn the contributions, or even the sheer deluge of small contributors that Obama has. His performance in Iowa against a very much better funded Clinton for second place points out a couple important things: He drew most of people's "second-choice" votes, as noted elsewhere, and more to the point, Clinton did not. What that means is this: Her support level is pretty well fixed in place and will not likely increase. And that ought to be a red flag for her campaign.
Edwards in fact may very well serve to help push Clinton off the stage in favor of Obama. I don't see the Obama campaign disparaging him nearly as much, for that reason (his general usefulness in that), and also, they see how underfunded he is and don't therefore see him as a real threat to their team.
On another topic, I think the Clinton campaign and backers are finding out that the polls in fact primarily rewarded her name recognition early on. Those not already in her corner have also commented here and elsewhere on the very real problem that she may not be able to overcome - many people, even in her own party, do in fact have a deep, solid, long-established, visceral dislike of her, and the reality is that's not a feeling easily changed. It's also interesting to note that in conversations I've had, some of her supporters indicate that they are supporting "a woman for President" and not in fact the particular woman seeking the office. This too is a warning sign. One backer, who really ought to have known better, said he'd have been as comfortable with Elizabeth Dole or Condoleezza Rice as Clinton, at which point I walked away, realizing that he wasn't going to be reasoned away from a position that had no basis in reason in the first place.
At the end of a campaign, when they enter the booth, people tend to vote for the candidate they like, without necessarily referring to long lists of positions, proposals, and programs. And many people just do not like Sen. Clinton very much.
It's still very early in the race, and much of what I say here is from someone on the sidelines, but one way it could play out is that Edwards weakens Clinton enough for Obama to take a strong lead after the Feb. 5th primaries.
Obama could also fade, although I don't see that as nearly as probable, given the crowds he draws. As those crowds begin to translate to numbers, we'll know for certain.
Edwards, for all his good positions, simply does not have the funds to go the distance. It would take a solid run of primary wins to draw the level of contributors he would need to become viable as a nominee, and I just don't see him getting that run the way things are shaping up.
Early guess: Obama holds a lead, although never a huge one, Edwards does OK with a string of seconds and thirds, Clinton stays in it for a long time based on her funding, and ultimately falls short.
I'd still vote for any of them, with varying degrees of enthusiasm.
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@ juneausmog
[Read the article: The politics of not nice]
[Read more letters about this article: Here]Edwards simply does not have the financial resources to do anything other than "die another day" in this campaign.
Unless he manages a large-margin victory Tuesday (slim chance at best) and then a blowout in SC (even more highly doubtful) he isn't going to be able to stick around much longer. The Feb. 5th slate of primaries is where the campaign gets expensive, as there are so many, and they are so widespread, that TV is the necessary vehicle. And TV is very expensive.
Add to that the fact that I doubt Edwards feels much fondness for the Clinton campaign. Like it or not, he's positioned himself on the same side of the "change" fence as Obama. He just doesn't have nearly the cash for the fight over there.
Somehow, I think he knows it, and after doing the calculus, sees the route he's taking as his best option to a Cabinet post - AG maybe? (I don't see him wanting the #2 spot again, and I don't know that it would be offered...)
As AG, he could in fact effect serious change, and in far better ways than did Gonzo. He's not by any measure a stupid man, I suspect thoughts like this are not foreign to him even as he runs tonight.