Letters to the Editor
anonny
Published Letters: 124 Editor's Choice: 13
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Ah ... Lieberman
[Read the article: Novak's back, warning against McCain-Lieberman ticket]
[Read more letters about this article: Here]Unfortunately, Novak's track record on accurate analysis and predictions is right up there with Bill Kristol's. I think they've been wrong on just about everything.
Outside of Connecticut the low information, middle-of-the-road voter still thinks Lieberman is centrist. There is a good chance that a Lieberman VP nomination would allow the independent, latent racists out there to assauage their consciences while they vote against Obama.
Meanwhile, all the talk about Republicans not voting for a pro-choice VP is bullcrap. Remember all that talk about how "the base" wouldn't vote for McCain? Remember all the Rush Limbaugh and James Dobson diatribes against McCain? Well, those guys are back in the fold.
For "the base" being a Republican isn't a party membership, it's a fundamental part of their personal identity, as much as their gender and profession. "The base" (ironically, Al Qadea translasts as "the base") are Republicans first, Americans second (to the degree that they can distinguish between the two -- often they can't).
"The base" would vote for someone with a far worse personal history than Bill Clinton, who was liberal on social issues and who favored gun control, if he was Republican and acted sufficiently macho (as evidence, look up Rudy "911" Guliani). So, for all the whining today, "the base" would indeed vote for McCain-Lieberman come November.
Furthermore, there is something Lieberman has in common with "the base". Both have an intense, irrational attachment to a tribal view of the world. The only difference is that "the base" identifies with America, Lieberman identifies with Israel. However, there is definitely a meeting of like minds there, which is why Lieberman gets along so well with the leaders of "the base" -- even those leaders who are on record saying nasty things about Jews.
So, I do indeed fear a McCain-Lieberman ticket. Obama has only 2 months to get the low information voter to understand the Real McCain, not his image. It will be worse if they have to attack the Lieberman image as well.
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That prediction fits
[Read the article: Plouffe on McCain's "high-water mark"]
[Read more letters about this article: Here]That prediction certainly fits the attitude of the Obama campaign. I don't mean that in a judgmental way, as we won't know if they are right or not until November. However, their approach thus far is consistent with the idea that they are letting McCain's team make noise through negative, personality-based campaigning in August (all the while tarnishing McCain's own image) while the Obama team quietly builds an organization and a theme. The Obama team has clearly been targeting the convention as the beginning of the "real" campaign and building their message from there.
Are they really as prepared as they seem? Will they really execute as well as Clinton's team did in 1992, but in the vastly different political and technological climate we have today? I think so, but don't really know.
By the waym at least one early metric seems to support the Obama campaign manager's premis. The Gallup daily poll has gone from a 2 point lead for McCain two days ago to a 6 point lead for Obama now. Obviously only one data point, and a highly imperfect one at that (ironically, one that the Obama team scoffs at) -- but something worth watching.