Letters to the Editor
anonny
Published Letters: 124 Editor's Choice: 13
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Forget the daily horserace -- what matters is the foundation for the race in the fall
[Read the article: Rollins: "McCain is having a disastrous week"]
[Read more letters about this article: Here]I don't worry too much about the swings in the week-to-week polls yet -- I expect Obama to stay slightly ahead in general but with a lot of undecideds until the conventions.
What is important now is how the campaigns are preparing for the race in the fall. On this point Obama does seem to be doing much better. But this is not a surprise, in the primary campaign Obama proved himself to be an outstanding manager of a large effort. He brought in excellent staff, he addressed problems quickly, he and his staff worked out a terrific strategy based on delegate counts, he responded to issues quickly, he adapted as the situation changed, he kept his people enthused and on message the entire time, and stayed focused until the end. Unless you've managed a large effort like that you don't realize just how terrific a job Obama did.
I see signs he's doing the same in the general election. Again, he's building the right staff, they are enthused and on message, and he's staying focused. His team does quickly respond to the idoicy from the McCain camp, or the really stupid articles in the media, but doesn't get distracted by them.
This summer he's doing things that address the main negatives that Clinton and McCain's camps threw at him. Too far left? He pissed off the Kossacks (he pissed me off too on FISA -- but I realize this was part of his campaign strategy). No experienced enough? Not CIC material? This trip tears that charge to shreds.
One thing a lot of us haven't liked about Obama is his forays into the "faith" area -- such as his sort-of endorsement of Bush's faith-based initiatives. I expect more of these in the next 3-4 weeks, because the other attack on him -- the slimiest of all -- is the Muslim whisper campaign.
The point is that by the time the conventions are over Obama will have seeded in the subconscious of the low information voter images and storylines that cement the idea that Obama is a Christian centrist with superior leadership abilities in both foreign and domestic spheres. So that when the debates start focusing on policy issues he won't have to spend much time swatting down arguments against him on those distractions.
Meanwhile, you'll notice that this summer Obama has been more about promoting his agenda/self rather than attacking McCain -- his comments about McCain are almost exclusively in response to a comment McCain made about him. (Of course, his campaign does attack McCain regularly, but Obama does not.) This too helps -- the undecided voters are generally sick of the bickering and Obama is playing to them.
Meanwhile, McCain's campaign is using the shotgun attack approach. Attack everything Obama is, says, or does no matter what and hope for something to stick -- then hammer that issue until November. It worked before for Rove, but I don't think it will work in this environment.
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You nailed it
[Read the article: McCain's silver lining]
[Read more letters about this article: Here]This is the McCain strategy.
Up to a few months ago McCain had credibility as a candidate with strengths of his own. He *seemed* independent and centrist -- he was widely perceived as rational, calm, and open-minded based on his many TV appearances dating to the Clinton impeachment era, when he burst on to the national scene as a common-sense-talking Republican.
He's pretty much destroyed that credibility in the past two months. In every appearance he comes across as just another political attack dog. Even low info voters have come to expect that any McCain speech will tell you that Obama is the Worst Thing Ever, with exaggerations and distortions galore.
But, his handlers don't care. They realized that McCain-the-straight-talking-gentlemen-Independent couldn't beat Obama-the-extremely-eloquent-gentlemen-moderate-who-is-not-a-Republican. Possibly not in any election, but certainly not in 2008. So they abandoned McCain's positive assets and adopted the GWB approach -- attack, attack, attack. And make your own intellectual weaknesses into a strength by painting the opponent as an "elitist" while you are "a regular guy" (who happens to be a billionaire who has never entered a Walmart -- but then facts aren't important).
Will this work? Well, we saw it happen with GWB -- he got close enough in 2000 for the Florida fix to tip the election. So naturally we worry that Rove -- I mean, McCain -- will be successful this time around.
However, Rove is like the proverbial man who only has one tool -- a hammer -- so he sees every thing as a nail. (This old analogy is particularly appropriate for Rove.) The attack-attack-attack campaign is all that Rove knows. He could never adapt to, for example, the "Morning in America" style of campaign, or the Clinton style of campaigns of 1992 and 1996. My guess is that the Rove style can work in circumstances where the two parties have roughly an even chance starting out, but in today's strongly anti-Republican environment it's not going to work because the economy will trump personality issues. Furthermore, Obama has learned from the GWB successes and seems prepared to counter this stuff.
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How they would perform as President
[Read the article: Ranking Obama's final four]
[Read more letters about this article: Here]I supposed all 4 do the same thing -- increase Obama's centrist cred while staying within the Democratic Party. I'm not sure if Sebelius would hurt or help being a woman -- I kind of suspect she's on the list to placate women voters but that Obama won't go there because he feels a black/woman ticket will be too much for the borderline rednecks.
However, electability aside, how would they be as President? On that front:
1 - Sebelius ... don't know much about her but seems to govern competently in a challenging environment. KS is a well-run state.
2 - Kaine ... hasn't shown as much competence as Sebilius, but has been a governor of a sizable state.
3 - Biden ... unlike most Senators, who don't have much applicable real experience, Biden does bring deep foreign policy and national security knowledge to the table. Haven't seen evidence of solid administrative skills.
4 - Bayh. Nothing to suggest he's ready to be President. Is this someone you want to pare with Obama?