Letters to the Editor
kenkapkk
Published Letters: 131 Editor's Choice: 13
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Why its close
[Read the article: A tale of two campaigns]
[Read more letters about this article: Here]When you read the blogs, like Kos, you get a better look at the dynamics. The trend lines have been the same since the Dem's wrapped it up in June, where the race has steadied so far at about a six pont margin. As some readers and Chuck Todd remarked, anything over 4 points is a landslide, so if it stayed at 6 we would probably look at 320 EV.
I think its this close for a bunch of reasons.
1)Americans are a far more conservative group, politically and emotionally, than those of us here. So if 12% of them still believe Obama is a Muslim, you can imagine the caution and misinformation the rest have.
2)Obama, coming out of a bruising primary has had to take time to get the National campaign off the ground. It is just picking up speed.
3)As much as Joan would hate to look at it, Clinton sowed many seeds of distrust of Obama, distorting his stance, his values, and blathering about "Commander in Chief " readiness and "elitism". Why should it be difficult for the country to see past that easily?
4)The media is swift boating Obama constantly out of fear and bias and a desparate desire to keep the race close Thus CBS could unethically distort McCain's enourmous gaffe on the surge and there was little consequence. If Obama had made the series of errors McCain has on foreign policy, he would have been driven out of the race immediately in a firestorm. There is a terrible double standard going on. The real McCain is beding shielded.
5)People aren't really tuning in and won't until after the conventions. The debates and intensive campaigning will tell the tale.
6)He's black. Nuff said.
Given all the above, 6 points is about right for now. My guess is as the country's comfort zone widens, the debates create problems for McCain, and advertising and campaigning kick in seriously, if all goes well, we'll be looking at a 6-8 point win. In this modern era, for an unknown guy, that would be huge.
Read the blogs, especially Kos. They're much better at this, particularly at looking at underlying dynamics. Example-Remember Obama's "Hispanic" problem? Well now he's polling at 66% to McCain's 22% and could climb to 75%. That creates real problems for McCain in allocation of resources. Same with Jews.
Stay away from the MSM crap. There's no "there there". This is a change election and eventually they will vote for change. It takes time.
Jeez Joan, you bashed the guy for months, now you wonder why he hasn't rebounded better? And you're a *progressive*? Get a grip and be accountable.
P.S. Unfortunately I believe if the FISA fight had been later in the campaign, the outcome would have been different. Its hard to admit the guy is human like the rest of us and doesn't walk on water.
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Polls
[Read the article: David Brooks calls Barack Obama a sojourner]
[Read more letters about this article: Here]The EV polls at Pollster.com have Obama winning 284-157, rest is tossup. All "light blue" (leaning Obama) are by 6 or more points. The MSM wants a horse race so John Harwood got on Abrams tonight and gave Obama 217 to McCain 187, contradicting NBC's own poll site. (He put Pa which is Obama by 7 as a toss up.
I think this is going to be like the primary. Chuck Todd called it in February but the MSM, including Joan, desperately wanted a narrative of a real race. I think this is over. I think the country really wants change and McCain is not going to give them reason to vote for him. Obama is a quick learner. We forget how difficult it is to run a National Campaign. By October the country will be "comfortable" enough to go with him, barring a really major mishap. The debates will highlight McCain's record which he can't run from. Anything over 4 points is a landslide.
300-350 or more EV.
Oh, David Brooks is a total asshole. Why would I listen for one second to anything he has to say? Or comment on a column of his and take him seriously, for God sake?
And about resume? Tell me exactly what were Lincoln, Truman and Clinton's substantial resumes before they became President?
All this experience crap is exactly that. Lyndon Johnson, Richard Nixon, and Dick Cheney were three of the most experienced people to occupy high office and all did unspeakably evil shit. Hooray for them and all you witless jerks who constantly bring up this stale canard.
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Miss the Point
[Read the article: David Brooks calls Barack Obama a sojourner]
[Read more letters about this article: Here]Most everyone here misses the point which was aptly put by John Dean on Countdown.
1) Obama IS the candidate. All this obsessing about whether he is experienced enough, good enough, arrogant, etc is beside the point. He is what we have. And for those who think he can't lead, he sure did a pretty good job of one of the greatest political upsets of alltime against one of the most experienced politicians of this period. Who ran a dreadful campaign (where was her capacity to lead?).
2)This obsession with personality and the focus on the one misses the greater point: that a Democratic administration will affect everything from Supreme Court and Federal judges, to Cabinet posts and Foreign policy initiatives, to the reclaiming and cleaning out of the politicized and corrupted justice department.
If McCain is elected, this corrupt culture across the board will remain in place. Obama is the head of a long line of changes.
Yes it is potentiality, but as Kamiya said, at least there is hope. With McCain there is none because he will be forced to bring most of the Republican culture with him. He is so far up their butt, what makes you think he would change in a first term?
Anyone here who seriously contemplates voting for McCain is a moron, severely intellectually impaired, and pathetic.