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KcM | GitM

Published Letters: 403
Editor's Choice: 5

Wednesday, March 5, 2008 01:35 PM

Math is hard!

If it comes to it, FL and MI should probably vote again. Obviously the MI delegation in particular can't be seated as the vote went down.

Thing is, it probably won't come to that. I'm not why so many ostensibly intelligent people find the math so daunting to understand, but the race is now over. Clinton needed a knockout punch in Ohio and Texas to stay viable, and she didn't get it. She at most picked up 10-15 pledged delegates (depending on the final results of the TX caucus.) She's down 150. There's no way for her to catch up, even if FL and MI revote.

Let me break it down in a football metaphor, since people seem to have so much trouble with the math.

Obama is up 34-7 in the fourth quarter. Clinton just scored a touchdown. It is now 34-14. But there are two minutes left and Obama has the ball. He can just take a knee and end this thing (although he might as well run up the score.)

It's over. Kaput. Finished. In the fridge. The Clinton campaign knows this. And so do the superdelegates. I'd expect them to end this contest en masse sometime between now and Pennsylvania. And particularly if Clinton adopts any more McCain talking points between now and then.

Friday, February 29, 2008 12:15 PM

@paulpsd

Fair enough, Paul. Point well taken.

Friday, February 29, 2008 11:49 AM

The symptom is the cause.

"And considering the drooling anticipation with which some in the media are waiting for a final defeat for Clinton, the pile-on if she fails to capture either or both of those states will be hard to recover from."

Any why is the media drooling in anticipation? Because of idiotic press releases like this one, which insult the intelligence of the media and everybody who comes in contact with it. Spin used to be a way of approaching certain facts in a way that helps your argument, not making up inane stances in full defiance of the facts, or reality in general.

Nobody, not even members of the press, like to be treated like they're stupid. Which is one of the main reasons a lot of the press can't stand the Clinton campaign, and -- like me -- will be savoring their coming defeat.

Friday, February 29, 2008 11:23 AM

Sigh.

Conspiracy theories, like scapegoating, are tactics we on the left really don't need to be appropriating from the conservatives in this country.

Ralph Nader may have made a pact with Satan himself, but that doesn't mean he shouldn't be allowed to run for president.

Now, I'm a very strong Obama supporter, and I really hope that people who consider voting Nader take a long, hard look at Obama first.

But that doesn't mean Nader shouldn't run, or that he had anything to do with Gore losing in 2000. Gore lost all on his own.

We Democrats need to grow up already, and stop indulging in undemocratic scapegoating of third party candidates. If Nader wants to run, so be it. We'd do better to spend our time proving that our candidate is a vastly stronger choice, rather than indulging in weak-sauce conspiracy theories like this.

Then again, Conason's been Nader-baiting ever since his beloved Gore lost in 2000.

Wednesday, February 27, 2008 01:30 PM
Original article: Anonymous no more

Brava.

Good. The lunatics were taking over the asylum for awhile there.

Monday, February 25, 2008 08:46 PM
Original article: The dude vote

Some words of advice:

Don't waste time wrestling with a pig. You just get dirty and the pig loves it.

In other words, let the anons rant away until their fingers are blue. It won't change the fact that we're looking at an Obama-McCain general election at this point, or that Sen. Clinton -- while up against an extremely impressive challenger in Sen. Obama -- ran a woefully incompetent campaign in too many ways to mention.

As for this piece...pretty terrible. But, frankly, the new Gary Kamiya piece today isn't much better. It's weird and off-putting how hung up on identity politics in all its forms Salon turned out to be.

Friday, February 22, 2008 10:04 AM

It's fine.

As someone else noted, a Nader run is good for Obama. It helps to dispel the notion in general circles that he's far too lefty for the presidency.

Thursday, February 21, 2008 11:07 PM
Original article: A few debate thoughts

I would agree with most of that, billcap.

I don't think Sen. Clinton should concede before March 4 either. Let's hear what OH, TX, VT, and RI have to say.

That being said, the needed margins of victory for Clinton are so steep now (again, 60-40 or 65-35) that winning will not be enough. That why, even though we'll go on until March 4, it's for all intent and purposes over. And I applaud Sen. Clinton for realizing thus and not going scorched-earth negative, a tactic that would only redound against the party as a whole.

Thursday, February 21, 2008 11:01 PM
Original article: A few debate thoughts

ljwalker.

Could you pass along links to this independent polling on the Xerox thing? I was only watching CNN, and it clearly went over badly there, both with the commentariat and the dial-clicking focus group of undecideds.

Thursday, February 21, 2008 10:15 PM
Original article: A few debate thoughts

Randvek.

That February-for-Obama, March-for-Clinton presumption we were all making was predicated on the idea that Sen. Clinton would challenge the February races. Due to either strategy or financial problems, she didn't.

As a result, Sen. Obama won 11 contests in a row by no less than 17 points, and has managed to run up his pledged delegate total far higher than anyone could've expected.

So, again, Sen. Clinton can't just win OH and TX. She has to blow them out. Barring an epic meltdown by Sen. Obama between now and March 4, that's just not going to happen. If she loses either, the race is over March 5. Even if she wins them by small margins -- meaning less than 10-15 (which is still considerably less than she mathematically needs) -- the race is over March 10 or so, after the supers all have had time to internalize the math. Either way, it's over.

And, again, to her credit, Sen. Clinton showed tonight she understands this, and (after seeing her Xerox gambit fail) tipped she would withdraw the race with grace and dignity intact. Power to her. It's been a spirited race, but it's time for our party to start coming back together.

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