re: I gotta say, I hope you're a little too pessimistic and that Roubini is right. For all of our sakes.

I gotta say, I hope so too.

But I've also gotta say that I see no real reason anywhere to be optimistic. What passes for "good news" nowadays boils down to "not as bad as predicted". Of course, the "prediction" bar is set so low that not hitting it at any give point is almost meaningless. This gives rise to false optimism.

In my mind, unless and until we see a sustained growth of millions of new good-paying jobs with decent benefits and a lowering of both personal and governmental debt, I just don't see how the downward spiral stops. We cannot borrow our way out of a crisis of debt, which is what we seem to be doing with a vengeance. We cannot have a real recovery unless people have jobs -- and not WalMart-type crap jobs, either.

There are so many other issues that stand in the way of a real recovery and a robust economy that I can't begin to list them all.

When people ask me to predict the future, I obviously cannot. I think there are so many variables that trying to say with any level of specificity what will happen is impossible. I can only say with certainty that the general trend is getting worse by the day, and I see nothing that prompts me to believe that it will turn around anytime soon.

I'd love to be optimistic. I obviously gain nothing by the whole enchilada going down the tubes. But I need real, concrete reasons for optimism. I just don't have any.

P.S.

Almost a Quarter of U.S. Homeowners Are Underwater

A growing number of U.S. homeowners owe more than their properties are worth after prices extended their two-year decline in the first quarter, Zillow.com said.

About 21.8 percent of all owners were underwater as of March 31, the Seattle-based real estate data service said in a report today. At the end of the fourth quarter, 17.6 percent of homeowners owed more than their original mortgage, while 14.3 percent had negative equity three months earlier.

Property values dropped 14 percent from a year earlier in the first quarter, reducing the median value of U.S. single- family homes, condominiums and cooperatives to $182,378, Zillow said. The decline has left about 20.4 million of the U.S.’s 93 million houses, condos and co-ops with loans higher than the properties are worth. The gain in underwater homeowners will lead to more bank repossessions, Zillow said. (MORE)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aQb4ns2nRBUE&refer=us#

Perhaps Roubini can explain to me how this number will not continue to grow. I just don't see the mechanism that stops this; indeed, as is happening, it is feeding on itself. Since there are not millions of new, good-paying jobs on the horizon, folks will continue to be squeezed, consumer spending will at best stagnate, and the real economy continue to contract, further exacerbating downward price pressure on housing.

re: Roubini is predicting an end to the recession in 2010.

This is extremely optimistic.

SEE:

http://tinyurl.com/d35c7b

Also, Roubini hedges this prediction:

"there may be finally light at the end of the tunnel but later rather than sooner, in 2010 rather than in the second half of 2009. There are still significant downside risks and while optimists speak about green shoots there are still plenty of yellow weeds"

http://tinyurl.com/cgj6a8

Saying that "There are still significant downside risks" is quite an understatement, given everything I've been reading.

re: I've heard about a lot of kids having to do that...

There are now a lot of adults doing that.

re: are you still sure we are headed for a doomsday-type collapse

Since I have been so pessimistic about the economy for so long, and since I have seen my predictions confirmed repeatedly by events, and since I still see the same idiots in Washington doing the same thing, yes.

See my posts:

http://tinyurl.com/cxesqf

and

http://tinyurl.com/dzqgyl

re: we will all need some 'survival' skills

I'm not optimistic regarding hunting for varmints for dinner in an urban environment, which is where most people live. The best survival skill may be stocking up on supplies, as though preparing for a hurricane. There is no downside risk to this, and it may help if there are serious disruptions in deliveries to local stores.

re: Any thoughts on the Roubini comment...

"We will discover soon enough there are a lot of financial shocks."

--Nouriel Roubini

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE54511C20090506