If we invade another middle eastern country on the premise that it has an irrational dictator who is bent on using WMDs belligerent and terrorist purposes, well, then as G Dub said, fool me once...

I doubt this will happen. The two worst case outcomes are:

1) We bomb the Iranian facility, and possibly some other "high-value" targets within Iran

2) Israel bombs the Iranian facility, and possibly some other "high-value" targets within Iran.

The US is simply not in any position to invade Iran given the existing commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Having said that, I find even the 2 worst cases mentioned above unlikely. If we unleash the air force on them, they could cause big trouble for us in Iraq and perhaps in Afghanistan too. They could also stop exporting oil, or try to disrupt the flow of oil tankers through the straight of Hormuz (although I think that less likely).

In short, I think cooler heads will prevail on both sides as the costs of an attack are quite high for both sides. Consequently this will most likely remain a rhetorical battle.

I believe the worst-case scenarios will become much more worst-case if Iran gets the Bomb.

And I humbly suggest to you that your assumption that the Iranian leadership's version of a cool head is the same as yours is not well-founded.

Iranians are not some kind of mutant human species. I know several Iranians, and they seem perfectly normal, just like everyone else.

There has not been a nation yet willing to commit nuclear suicide by launching a nuclear attack against another nuclear state. I don't see anything that leads me to believe Iranians are some kind of exception to this rule.

And as Glenn and numerous others have pointed out, it isn't _IRAN_ but Israel and the United States that that have actually attacked other countries in the Middle East. I'm much more worried that the US and Israel will resort to nuclear first strikes than I am of Iran. The US has actually made nuclear threats - Cheney liked to talk about using bunker busting nukes to take out Iranian nuclear facilities during the Bush years.

Just want to add a few things to your response to WinSmith earlier...

Iran is indeed an importer of gasoline, and will indeed need to import oil itself in a few years, if current trends hold up (as they almost certainly will). But this is a common pattern among oil exporters. It has already happened many times, most recently in Britain and Indonesia (former oil exporters, now new importers of oil). Mexico will probably be the next example.

There is even a model to describe the phenomenon - it's called the Export Land Model, developed by Jeffrey Brown. As economies grow, internal oil consumption grows. Oil extraction, however, rises up to a peak value, then declines. Once oil extraction rates start declining, net exports can vanish quite quickly since internal consumption keeps rising.

The implications of this phenomenon are simultaneously far reaching and horrifying. You can bet your a** the Iranian and US leadership are keenly aware of what the future holds.

The US imports something like 12-14 million barrels of oil a day. As more and more oil exporters switch to oil importers, the competition for the remaining oil on the export market will become fierce. The US would like to maintain a military option in case money is no longer enough to ensure access to an adequate supply.

Iran relies on oil exports for much needed revenue - they are in big trouble without it. And they would very much like to have an insurance policy against an outside threat of force to get at their hydrocarbon resources. That is why the Iranians desperately want a nuke - to deter just such a military adventure on the part of the US or Israel (or perhaps in the medium term, even China).

We'll just have to agree to disagree on the nature of the Iranian leadership.

I'm sure they screw over their citizenry on a regular basis. How does this make them any different from any other government?

They seem to practice realpolitik, not suicidal violence. They push their interests where possible, even doing nasty sh*t like giving money and arms to groups like Hezbollah and Hamas.

So what? Everyone does that. That makes them a run of the mill regime. The US armed the Contras, supported the Afghan rebels during the Russian occupation, Israel invaded Lebanon and bombed Iraq, etc., etc., and on and on.