At what point in recent history has the government been fully capable of weighing the danger appropriately? You are suggesting we should trust them becasue they know what they are doing?

Sometimes governments can weight danger appropriately. That's not to say the always will, or even that they get it right most of the time. I'm sympathetic to your thinking - it often gets it wrong. All I'm saying is that, if we have any hope whatsoever of a decent future, there will need to be a centralized authority which gets it right. That's very different from saying that it is likely to happen, or that it will happen.

Re: knowing what they are doing. If the right people are put in decision making positions, we'll have a chance. The information is out there - James Hansen, the NASA scientist, would be a great choice for a climate policy oligarch. A denier like Senator Inhofe would be a total disaster. Richard Heinberg or Matt Simmons could be energy oligarchs. Choose people who understand the nature and scale of the problems. Power might corrupt them, but at least we'd have a chance.

Kind of hate to point this out, but Afghanistan is not in fact a US operation, it is a NATO operation.

True, but IMHO irrelevant. The US is leading the operation, and without a continued US committment, everyone else goes home.

There is a pretty huge international humanitarian component going on there too, which would certainly end if the military withdrew.

Yep. But the humanitarian mission has already been irretrievably botched. The resistance is getting stronger, which means support for our side is waning, not waxing, meaning it is highly unlikely that we can eliminate the Taliban, which means we eventually lose. Staying there any longer just increases the costs, both in lives and money.

I'm not entirely sure what options anybody has in Afghanistan. The alternatives to fighting are pretty appalling, and the fact is that the only way the fighting can be successful, is going to involve cross-border strikes, there is no way around it; Pakistan's NW provinces are not in fact really under any kind of Pakistani control.

Yep - and cross-border strikes are a recipe for disaster. They merely solidify support for the Taliban in NW Pakistan, as well as undermine the authority of the Pakistani government and tilt Pakistani public opinion away from the US, which, in the long run, is self-defeating.

If you are for pulling out of Afghanistan and letting it sink into something even worse than Somalia, you should say so. Me, I'm just happy that Afghani girls are going to school again.

1) Nobody is in FAVOR of Afghanistan descending into violent lawlessness.

2) Afghani girls going to shool is great, but maybe not worth all the death the destruction, especially if you believe the situation is only temporary since we can't win anyway.

3) Just because it's theoretically POSSIBLE for an international force to handle the Afghan situation well enough to get to a "good" long term solution (relative peace, stability, and some prosperity), that does not mean that the existing international force will be able to pull it off. Put me in the camp that bets against Obama to handle the situation appropriately. I'm betting Obama will fuck it up, that the Afghan "surge" will only make matters worse.

...2 addictions the U.S. must break if this country is to survive:

1) Addiction to oil.

2) Addiction to Israel.

While there has been some effort made to deal with #1, there has been absolutely no effort made to deal with #2.

Overall, I agree, but I'd say you're focused on the wrong issue. #1 is far more important, and IMHO there has been no effort made to deal with it.

We use more oil today than at any time in our history. We import more oil than at any time in our history. Our addiction to oil has only been aggravated, and we are now facing a future of unending, ongoing declining annual oil extraction.

The consequences for the world will be profound, and the consequences for the US will be especially unpleasant. I suggest looking at Jeffrey Brown's Export Land Model:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Export_Land_Model

#1 also explains, to first order, #2, since Israel is considered by US policymakers to be our only real ally in the heart of the world blessed with the largest oil deposits.