"Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, Stephen Hadley said: 'We're clearly in a new phase characterized by an increase in sectarian violence that requires us to adapt to that new phase.'"

That's been the trouble all along, at least since the toppling of Saddam's statue. We're constantly reacting, or "adapting" to the situation, never doing anything proactive to make the opposition react to situations that we create.

And they brag about it!

For the reasons stated so well in this article, and by other respondents, it is becoming increasingly likely, nay probable, that the increasingly desperate President Cheneybush will find some reason to unleash a major attack on Iran. The catastrophic results of that mad act will make what's happened in Iraq seem like a kindergarten rumble.

Even Cheneybush must realize by now that their reckless misadventure in Iraq has stretched our military too thin to even extricate ourselves out of that quagmire, let alone take on Iran. And even if Cheneybush doesn't intend to attack Iran, their increasing war drum tempo is likely to cause Iran to make its own preemptive strike; they saw where the earlier war drums led to next door.

Iran could easily defeat our bogged down forces in Iraq; even if they were sufficient they're no longer in a position for conventional warfared. And even if sufficient reinforcements were available, Iran could easily block the only available sea route to Iraq, the Persian Gulf. What's more, it has developed super fast long range torpedoes that could be launched against our ships from any point along its 1,000 mile plus shoreline on the Gulf.

That applies to conventional weapons. Cheneybush still has the ultimate Plan B: nuclear weapons. But launching them would be totally catastrophic. Totally. To the Iranians, its neighbors, and us.

Even relatively small "bunker busting" bombs would unleash radioactive fallout that would spread for thousands of miles in whatever direction the wind happens to be blowing: Afghanistan and our own troops there, Pakistan, India, Russia, etc. The wind could even blow east to Iraq, and what's left of our own forces there. And if the "bunker busters" did manage to destroy the Iranian weapons under development, their radiation would be added to the mix.

What would the reaction of China, Pakistan, India and Russia be, each with a sizeable nuclear capacity of their own?

Perhaps Cheneybush is not as crazy as he seems; perhaps he hopes to intimidate Iran with the implied threat of nuclear weapons. The problem is that the Iranian president is as irrational as our own president, if that is possible, and could be welcoming such an attack.

There are also a considerable number of religious nuts -- Christian, Jewish and Muslim -- who would welcome such an attack, believing it would create the Armageddon that they believe would allow them to proceed directly to Heaven. Many of them, unfortunately, are now in positions of influence and power, amd have to be taken seriously.

I'm afraid. Very afraid.

Once again everyone is letting President Cheneybush frame the question on disputed matters. This time it is whether the Iranian government or renegades within it are providing the weapons in Iraq that are killing our troops; that these weapons are coming from Iran in significant numbers is allowed to be a given.

The real questions should be how truthful President Cheneybush is about the Iranian weapons being a significant factor, and if not coming from Iran who is really supplying them.

It doesn't seem logical for Iran to be providing them. It is a Shiite theocracy, generally supportive of the Iraqi Shiahs. The Iraqi Shiahs -- -- so far -- have not been a major force behind our troop deaths; they have been busily killing off Sunnis, the same Sunnis that with their al Qaeda and other allies have caused the most mayhem to our troops.

Would Iran be arming its mortal enemies, the Sunnis? It is far more likely that the Sunnis are being aided by our Sunni "friends" from other countries, in particular Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

But Cheneybush can't blame the Saudis, because we are still dependent on their oil. And we need the Egyptian government for other geopolitical reasons. Iran is their perfect whipping boy.

"I think he will. In fact, I'm willing to bet, to put my predictive gamble right out here in the public sphere: Bush will pardon Libby before the end of this year, 2007.

"Any takers?"

I haven't a shadow of a doubt that Fibby will be pardoned, but it will be much closer to the end of 2008. I wish it were otherwise, because President Cheneybush would then be writing off Republican chances in the 2008 election and all hopes of Republican help from this Congress for the rest of his term.

Assuming Cheneybush isn't impeached and convicted before then, look for Fibby to be pardoned right after the 2008 election. Fibby will have no trouble staying out of the hoosegow by stretching the appeals process until then.

George W. Bush is indeed a bold, decisive leader. So is the first lemming over the cliff.