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Clockwork Smurf

Published Letters: 1528
Editor's Choice: 35

Wednesday, September 2, 2009 10:41 AM

4 weeks of oil

To those of you say, big deal, it's only four more weeks of oil.

Keep in mind you are refering to oil at current usage levels, and are not taking into account and are not factoring into the equation currently existing wells.

So, yes, if we pumped all the oil in this well out, and shut down every other well in the world, that would result in running out of oil within four weeks.

That is not how we pump oil, and not how we use oil.

Given this is the second similarly large well in the same area we can make an educated guess that still more wells exist in the deep areas of the earth.

Given the ammount of oil on the surface of the earth, and understanding that the nature of a liquid like crude is to move to the lowest level, it can be surmised that in such an area a second Saudi Arabia likely exists.

Likewise given increases in energy efficiency a second Saudii Arabia is likely to last twice as long as the previous one.

It's all speculation of course, but so are assumptions that the oil available to us is running out. The exact ammount of oil is unknowable, the peak efficiency of use is unknowable, the future real value clearing point of oil based on the costs of use of the end product and the income of the end users are unknowable.

The differnce between a wild guess and an educated guess usually relates to decreases significanly for each unknown in your equation.

At this point the only known we have is that oil is a finite resource. Exactly what our long term usage, and availability are is fairly unknown.

Wednesday, September 2, 2009 09:47 AM

Well Duh

Of course new oil won't be cheap oil, but that's beside the point, thanks to the recent speculative market we've marked the real value of oil at about $90 - $100 the point at which demand decreases.

So BP has a good deal of wiggle room on the real value of that oil. Especially considering that Energy effeciency is on the rise,along with demand, so less oil can be sold to more people for the same base cost. That $100 a barral price point equates out to basic cost units (tank of gass), if you can suddenly get twice the milage on the same tank (or even a smaller tank) the base unit (let's say $50 a tank) remains the same even if the rate of usage of the product (10 gallon tank becomes a 5 gallon tank with no loss of mileage, but BP still get's to charge $50 a tank).

Peak oil is not a set point, it is in fact constantly moving based on the economy, the real value of oil, and the cost of competeing fuel sources. We might reach there eventually, but since the point is in active flux, it's kind of silly to think we are any closer (or farther) from that point today than we were yesterday.

It is unknowable, and as such irrelevant to one's economic equation.

Wednesday, September 2, 2009 06:48 AM

The Clerks Cartoon

The general problem that hit the Clerk's Cartoon wasn't really censorship but, lack of funds for publicizing, and production. Also, there was wackiness with the scheduling.

Although these things are bad for a new show, they are common and not exactly what you might call corporate malevolance. Far more easily explained as corporate incompetance, something Marvel had no shortage of long before Disney every entered the fray.

As to the Disneyification of Marvel, please check out Hero Squad (or for that Matter the Warner Product Super Friends Comic) both of which are exactly that. Cartooned version of popular heroes and Villains having grand, educational, and kid friendly adventures.

The existence of these products have no in any way limited Marvel or D.C.'s ability to feature rapists and wife beaters in their projects, and give a little chuckle to adults buying these books for their kids when said rapist or wifebeater is now depicted as a cartoonish kids characters.

Marvel has been marketing the Hero Squad for a few years now (formerly called Spiderman and his friends, which also strangly enough included spider girl, I don't think a logical origin was offered) long before Disney.

So, yes there will be kid friendly products from Marvel featuring Marvel licensed properties, just as there is right now and has been for year (remember Spidey on the Electric Company?).

Tuesday, September 1, 2009 12:05 PM

An intelegent article on the topic

I had thought such things only existed in legend.

I think most people are actually missing the point on the Merch issue thought.

You don't make money on Princess Films, for Goodness sake they've been reissuing the same ones for nearly fourty years now. You make money on Princess note books, and back packs and lunch boxes.

The same holds true for Marvel. The film francise doesn't matter, If nothing else it's a distraction, the real money is serialized cartoons, and the Underoos to Match!

Sure, they'll toss out about as many super hero films as Warner Does now (as many as any company does) meaning 1 - 2 a year, something to wind up their summer box office, before they trott out the horror film for october. And they'll probably even try that Dr. Strange film (although there you have the problem that Dr. VooDoo is the current Sorcere Supreme, let's hear ir for black 70's heroes reborn).

Actually, Ant Man (or possibly Giant Man, they're the same character) are already slated for the Avengers Film in 2012 along side Iron Man.

Beyond that, it's all about the Merch, the DVD's, and the tie ins. The actual Movies are really almost an after thought.

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