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Tuesday, July 29, 2008 07:52 AM

Dean, Pelosi, DKOS, the 50 state strategy, and one blue dog for another

A lot of people left DKOS when they realized the mantra of electing a Democrat no matter what, was a betrayal of fundamental party principles. Markos handed Pelosi the gavel. What happened to driving the lobbyists out of Washingtonm, Pay-Go, and accountability?

Pelosi fired Harman over her ties to AIPAC, and then Nan made her own Isreal first statement. She appointed Reyes to replace Harman, just as blue, maybe more so.

To get to the core of this argument, let's go back to the Dean/ Pelosi dustup, over the 50 state strategy. When the Democrats polled me, before the midterms, there was no mention of the war in Iraq. 2/3s of Democrats at the time favored an Impeachment resolution. Somehow Dean lost that fight I think. Somehow Markos misjudged the field, (initially it was all Hillary all of the time, and those who suggested she didn't have the Democratic party's interest at heart, (Bill Clinton being a famous middle of the road President, cutting the legs out from under Al Gore),were criticized as Freepers.

Americans are rumored to prefer split government, but that may be a myth. They reelected Bush with a Republican majority in Congress. The issue for COngressional races includes seniority, and majority/ minority party status. Voters will gain more earmarks if their candidate has both, seniority, and a majority of their party in control. Unfortunately many of the Blue Dogs score high on both counts.

One item to watch, will the next President have sub 50% approval ratings? Its very likely that Bush like approval numbers will dog whoever wins in November, which reflects the third party dilemma, and the Blue Dog connundrum.

Tuesday, July 29, 2008 08:03 AM
Original article: Obamanomics to the rescue

From Bush to Obama

Funny how Bush really had no platform at all in 2000, except a few tried and true Conservative homilies, which he dropped even before 9/11. Obama has this vast encyclopedia of plans, outlines, guides. He's like the tourist with his itinerary all mapped out, and then it rains for a week.

Nothing is going to work without stability; economic, social, global. Fortunately he has an even keel, (Reagan like), and offers relief from the repetitive bully pulpit arrogance of Bush. When the dust clears there will be far less money to work with, and can he deal with that?

Tuesday, July 29, 2008 01:22 PM

The Fed Needs this recession

An article at Pimco suggests that housing prices are running ahead of rents, double digits, which leads them to believe that housing has farther to fall. While interest rates increase the spread between housing and rents widens, according to the chart.

If housing prices are falling, are housing values remaining constant? Value is the abstract notion of what housing is worth, and that number is denominated in dollars, which rise or fall according to their physical supply. (Yes the money supply can contract). Housing prices vary depending on interest rates, land, labor, and material. The value remains relatively constant. Squeeze one end of the balloon and the other end gets bigger.

Should the Fed manage to control the slide in housing prices, they face real inflation because the only way the equation can come into balance is when rents rise. Rents are the component which translates into core inflation, CPI. Inflation is an inevitable consequence of increasing the money supply. While housing prices may decline, it's not in anyone's interest to see that happen. Lower interest rates narrow the spread, between rents and housing prices, but the Fed's accomodative policy is having the oppositive effect on mortgage rates.

As we enter a recession the components which make housing more difficult to acquire, interest rates, labor, materials, all become cheaper, and housing should get a lift from that, perhaps only relative to rents. The Fed needs this recession to get control of housing prices and economy, but rents will go higher, and core inflation. The monetary stimulus is in the pipeline, all that is needed is a catalyst.

The real deal would be a hike in interest rates. I believe that historically the moment when the Fed raises rates at or near the bottom of the recession, the stock market begins to rally, and the economy follows.

The excesses have pushed that date off a bit. Construction is probably the last great domestic manufacturing industry, and they are way overbuilt.

Tuesday, July 29, 2008 04:05 PM

Keep the keys

Stay in your home. Wall Street is writing down debt like crazy, if that doesn't somehow get to main street, then the system is broken, and you'll just end up returning to your old home as a squatter.

Wednesday, July 30, 2008 08:47 AM

The Media and NBA Officials

The media wants a close race. If the polls ever became as lopsided as the election should be, people will tune out, advertisers lose money, and Meet The Press gets preempted for an infomercial. So the NBA / Media Officials, call a couple ticky tack fouls on Obama, and sent this thing to seven games. That way everyone is happy. Why heck, team McCain might even win, but getting the election to November, that's their goal.

Wednesday, July 30, 2008 07:51 PM

Welcome to the party Andrew, the punch bowl is dry

really we have been telling you this for years, that Bush is a Socialist, but you ignored it. Well better to repent late than never.

Wednesday, July 30, 2008 07:58 PM
Original article: Why Bush folded on Iran

No Comfort in this

Oh so Bush and Obama are on the same page? Perhaps a nofly zone over Hormuz, a DMZ along the shippng lanes? Sure I get it, the war is still on.

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