What puzzles me about the oil market is why isn't the government manipulating oil prices? For anyone familar with the President's Working Group, aka Plunge Protection Team, and anyone who understands how the energy markets were rigged during the 2004 midterm elections, through the Goldman Sachs Commmodity index reweighting of gasoline, and through inventory manipulation of replacement oil in the SPR taken out during Katrina, we want to know, why not now?

One or two things comes to mind. First, it is still early in the election cycle. Two, manipulating gasoline prices didn't have the effect Republicans had hoped, they lost just about every seat that was up for reelection, and thirdly, the situation with the SPR provided a perfect opportunity, which doesn't exist at the moment.

One suspects oil prices are going higher, (since 2004) to pay for the deal they made with the devil. One benchmark of Republican dirty tricks, the Rovian, Faustian, bargain, is to confiscate taxpayer money, and put it into Republican campaign coffers. Perhaps Bush needs to square the account in the SPR before he leaves office?

The new rules for the various exchanges actually suggest greater regulation of traders, through margin requirements. These regulations can be changed at the drop of a hat, something which sends a chill through speculative traders. Then this is not a market driven by speculation. If it were, the government officials would have taken the other side of the trade, and driven the energy bulls out of town, just as they have kept the bond vigilantes in their place. (Rumor has it that the bond vigilantes now use gold to hedge inflation, because interest rates are a comfortable fiction).

The character of any market driven by speculators is high volatility, which is not evident in the energy market. Perhaps it all comes down to the dollar, which all the kings horses and men cannot manipulate. The Gulf states are going to drop the dollar peg, with the blessings of the US treasury, but what else could they do? If you consider the dollar, which is immune from speculative forces, at least for now, the case that oil is being subsidized in many places with FX reserves, the market is being priced rationally. At some point some rogue traders may take on the dollar, but only when it becomes obvious that its value is being manipulated higher, which does not seem to be the case.

The Chinese would dearly love to manipulate oil markets lower as well, since they subsidize energy to consumers, which includes you, Walmart shopper. Oil is probably a bargain, which is the final point worth making, and why the bulls are relentless in driving the price higher. There is no evidence that all the forces are anywhere near being in balance. However should the emerging BRIC nations have a collective recession, oil will collapse. That much seems clear.

Your point is well taken, higher prices should tend to favor the American consumer. If only those godless Chinese hadn't taken a page from the Nixon playbook, and gone to price controls. The China miracle has been a perfect example of the Republican split personality: gee isn't this great for profits, but what about their emerging military power, their record on freedom and human rights, and their unwillingness to play by the rules. Without the China problem, there is no energy problem.

Not to say the Chinese should all go back to mud huts, but even Reagan would have done something about it. I remember when he spent the Soviets into bankruptcy (official GOP boilerplate), now the Chinese are doing it to us.

Why don't you people take medication for your problem, (oh sorry just heard they're all tainted)...

Are the Republicans a united party behind Bush? Hardly. Winning elections is about getting swing voters to turn out. If the primary is any indication Obama will do quite well in terms of party turn out, and if Republicans cross as they did in Texas, he will win easily.

There is another factor, who stays home. Voters can be made to stay home on any number of counts, apathy, such as in the 2004 election, or if the campaign resonates emotionally. If for instance there was another terrorist attack, that emotional swing might favor McCain, while Obama has the presumptive charge, in his campaign of Change.

In the final tally some Hillary supporters may stay home, but that may only energize the Obama supporters. The only caveat to this is that in California at least, absentee ballots are considered mandatory by most Democrats. It's much easier not to stay home when you have an absentee ballot.