You don't live in California, do you? During a previous Real Estate bubble advocate Howard Jarvis ran Prop 13 through the Legilslature, which protects property owners. There is also another mechanism here which allows home owners to challenge the new appraisal.

As for revenue, we have Indian Casinos, and bulging sales tax revenues, north of 8% in some instances. Our governor has a degree in Creative Finance, and one of his first official acts was to refinance the state debt, by passing a new bond issue.

All said we are up to our necks in debt, living off gambling revenues, and our schools have gone downhill since the Lottery was introduced as the solution.

The outcome in Iraq is probably going to be the same regardless of which candidate is elected. Yes, Obama wants to pull out of Iraq, but he also wants to step up the fight in Afghanistan. The Reagan like war of words, a Cold War against Islamofascism, is the new Republican policy. In reality Reagan negotiated with Iran to free the hostages, and he did the cut and run in Beirut. Democrats were forced to follow the Republicans rhetorical lead in this regard, all through the Cold War, and you can make the point that they never understood it was a game, and got hopelessly mired in Vietnam.

But to the minds on the far right that sort of denouement is victory; Democrats and Communists, they are all the same. The Democratic party has not been a force since 1968. In many ways this election turns the clock back fifty years. I was so hoping Al Gore would run as the anti-Nixon, to complete the cycle. 60'-68' plus forty, and then for Gore to actually end the war, which Nixon only promised. For that Nixon paid heavily.

The political entrapment continues, as Bush trapped the Democratic Congress, and now perhaps the Democrats can trap McCain. The war against terrorism is a war of convenience, and will probably be quickly forgotten, although the rhetoric may have more staying power. McCains posture may represent also, the last gasp of a party whose policy wing has been too long at the fair.

I see McCain's position as the low risk option. The Democrats have yet to prove they won't withdraw from Iraq. The public perception is that a Democratic President will either withdraw, or substantially reduce the troop levels. McCain gets a public boost from outshouting them, as they try to take the middle of the road, and lean into the hawkish camp. The Democrats meanwhile are trying to sound tough, while trying to assuage the dominant Left Wing position, which is against the war. McCain has a decided edge in this debate. The war is off the front page, the MSM dropped coverage months ago.

McCain gets a secondary push from talking about something which sounds like news, and he sounds like he knows what he is talking about. This elevates his persona to that of the omniscent leader (Bush likes to play this role, I know something you don't...) who sees what is really happening on the ground in Iraq.

If it comes down to Iraq, McCain can win this election, and if it comes down to the economy as the substantive issue, McCain can win this election too.

The Democrats are gearing up for an attack on Republican fiscal policy, and McCain is one step ahead of them on that subject, listing the amount of earmarks each Democratic candidate has taken. No surprise that McCain is polling well against either Democratic candidate. If the war gets worse that simply proves that we need a bigger and better surge, if the lid stays on Iraq, that proves the surge worked.

The administration will pull some strings to get the stock market going until the election, just like they did in the 2004 midterms, with the gasoline market. Look for new highs in the DOW, paid for with freshly printed Bernanke dollars, and siphoned into the system by the Presidents Working Group, all done under the auspice of crisis management.

With the economy off life support, and plenty of money to run the war, McCain can talk up Iraq. The big risk is that they can't micromanage the numbers. The self applied censorship by the MSM also applies to news on the economy, where confidence is considered more important than the bottom line, (see Paulsons heated exchange in yesterday's testimony). The MSM will graciously comply, and keep the bad economic news on Main Street from getting into the state run propaganda network.

Under those circumstances McCain is likely to win the election.

We all know the winner is Goldman Sachs, top contributor to Obama's campaign. This is money they made shorting toxic mortgage bonds, and driving their value further into foreclosure country. No winners here. Keep looking