Just kidding. (I know better.)

Society has innumerable moving parts and the cause and effect relationships between them are seldom understood, even by the self-professed experts, be they politicians, academicians or business executives.

The types of events most likely to capture the immediate attention of America's public are the same events that capture their attention in the course of their daily lives: events related to their jobs, homes, cars, insurance, education, social relationships, money, health, etc.

Of course, everyone should do what they can to effect change in those ways that they think are best. All actions will have some effect. But more than likely, real change will occur when the daily lives of America's citizens are impacted by larger economic or structural changes beyond their immediate control.

Any number of actions on the parts of other countries (having little or nothing to do with Iraq's and Iran's supposed WMDs) could force America to change.

Few Americans are aware that we are in the middle of a petrodollar war. Saddam threatened the creation of an oil bourse. But then we invaded Iraq. Iran is creating its own oil bourse, giving the euro a firm and possibly permanent reserve currency position in international oil trade. America's belligerence towards Iran has as much to do with discouraging foreign investment in Iran as it has to do with Iran's nuclear program. Iran is not the only country threatening America's petrodollar through the creation of an oil bourse. Russia is planning to do the same, and since Europe does most of its oil and gas trade with Russia, the use of the Russian ruble as a reserve currency would be devastating to America. Latin America could do this as well, and likely will at some point. The collapse of America's petrodollar monopoly is inevitable. When it happens it will be catastrophic for the American economy. Economically, Americans will suffer far greater and much longer from this than from the war in Iraq.

Our war with Iraq, our aggression against Iran and our belligerence with regard to Latin America and Russia has accelerated the collapse of our petrodollar hegemony. We made an enemy of the world and now we must pay for it.

The reserve currency held by our major competitor in oil consumption, China, presents a related problem. China is well on the way to holding nearly two trillion dollars in reserve assets, much of that in dollars. As China develops and begins to rely less on export revenue and more on domestic consumption, it will need to diversify its reserve holdings, moving away from the dollar and towards the euro. This would also cause a collapse in the value of the dollar and resulting high inflation in the U.S.

Expensive wars combined with monopoly capitalism are the quickest way to recession. The last six years have not created wealth. They have transferred wealth from the many to the few. A hedge fund is to a casino what a casino is to a kitchen table poker game.

That is where we are at present. About the only way the Republicans can to hang on to power and to maintain the dominance of the petrodollar a little while longer is to start a war with Iran.

Short of that, the loss of houses, SUVs and other assorted "stuff" will increase. As a result, more and more Americans will decide that maybe they need to be a little more Democratic in their thinking.

Then we will have change.

I'm sorry to say, but where Americans are concerned, it is almost always about the money.

Gordon,

Although I'm mad as hell at the Democrats right now, I've already thrown my lot in with MoveOn.org, Avaaz.org, Working Families e-Activist Network (ie., AFL-CIO), ACLU, Consumers Union and True Majority. I don't do a lot, but I try to do what they ask.

I was so mad when the Congress folded on the war funding that I canceled my membership in several organizations. I was being hot-headed. I've calmed down a little and I expect I will sign up again.

I also track things on Glenn's blog as well as Digby's, FDL, HuffPo, TPM, Scott Horton's No Comment, Juan Cole's Informed Comment and several others.

And I write.

You should start a blog if you want. People will come to read it and some will participate. It's a lot of work and pretty thankless from what I can tell, but it's free to create.