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Published Letters: 4842
Editor's Choice: 20
Note the degree of vacilation even when he's calling bullshit.
Fascinating!
He's not hemming and hawing, he is speaking as a weapons inspector. Their job is to assess all possibilities on the existence of weapons. That is why Hans Blix, just before Bush started the war, said he needed 3 more months, even though off the record he said he didn't think they had the weapons. Blix explained at the time that he didn't think so, but as a weapons inspector he could not say so until there was a zero percent chance, and for that to be true he needed 3 more months.
BTW, the operative information now is whether or not Iran will have 3,000 centrifuges on line by May. The 2009 estimate from Albright is his worst case scenario from mid 2006.
So the real question is, who is the source for the status of the centrifuges and their status by May? That is the only "news" in the report.
The second operative information is whether or not Iran actually intends to have a nuclear weapons program. Everyone assumes so, since that is what every other country that follows their current trajectory has done. But they have a much more powerful deterrent threat with a peaceful nuclear program if they want one:
They are sitting on 1/4 of the oil in the Middle East. They can threaten to close it all down permanently if they have another energy source. Then they become like Paul Atreides holding the power to destroy the spice.
casual observer,
The literal answer to your question is one. In practice, though, it is production per unit time, and reasonable units of time take a lot of them, thousands, in cascades, as MD has written.
When does the rest of the world not need Iran's oil? Now? That's quite alright.
Don't forget that if all the Shi'a in the Middle East come into their own in their respective population bases, they own the Iraqi oil, the Saudi oil, and the Iranian oil. Plus all of Israel's water supply and a few other choice items.
I agree that they are a vicious regime, I agree that it is most probable Iran is after a nuclear weapon. But they don't have to be. Time, demographics, and the gluttony of the oil based economies are on their side.
All the more reason to be trying diplomacy as fast as we can, and to try not to create a mess in the Middle East.
