Letters to the Editor
HP
Published Letters: 479 Editor's Choice: 4
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Ain't no Mountain High Enough
[Read the article: A new round of superdelegates for Obama]
[Read more letters about this article: Here]Just recalculated all the #'s and here is the scenario...
Hillary currently at +22 Super Delegates. I am giving her all 19 of Edwards pledged delegates and 80% of all remaining undecided Super Delegates. And both of these are, of course, huge assumptions.
In order to win by 1...
That leaves her needing to pick up about 201 more of the remaining pledged delegates in play. That means winning all remaining states by 69% - 31%, a +38% margin of victory.
How likely is all of this? I leave that for you to debate.
But I just noticed something interesting.
It just so happens that the states that are built for Hill - OH, PA, WV, KY - happened to come last. If the last set of states were IL, MS, SC, WI we'd probably all be talking about Obama's "momentum".
I'm not sure you can call anything in a system like this "momentum". As they say in baseball - momentum is tomorrow's starting pitcher. Each game or state vote is its own individual game based on its own unique matchups and dynamics.
Not saying that Hillary has not gained some wave of enthusiasm, and I am not saying that Obama has not been slowed. But there is an elements of chance and random circumstance in how the calendar lined up.
I just find that worthy of note. The random construction of this calendar has led to sweeping statements. It's almost like the earlier votes do not matter since the focus remains 5 minutes behind / 5 minutes ahead - by nature of how we all are as a society. Almost like the NCAA footiball season, a late loss can kill your ranking - but a September loss is no big deal come bowl selection time.
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You have a depression era mentality
[Read the article: Former DNC head switches allegiance]
[Read more letters about this article: Here]Here we go - the "money is the root of all evil / Obama is just buying it" BS. What a craven argument by the weak.
Now that's just the wrong way to look at it.
We, as Democrats, should revel in the fact that we now raise more money than the GOP. We have a broader base and embrace new and innovative ways to energize people and get them to donate. It is now a decisive advantage.
Dems USED to decry the influence campaign money when they didn't have it. But now that we have it, we should use it to full effect. I never heard of Bill Clinton talking about an even playing field and spending caps when he was out-raising Dole and HW Bush. Not a word from Ed Rendell when he slaughtered Lynn Swann, far outpacing the latter's ad spend.
This is loser, whiny talk.
Politics is money. Money comes from energized voters who buy into a candidate. It is an extension of support.
If you want real campaign finance, I am all in. But until then, let's not cry and whine about the fact that we're being successful in this realm.
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Joe Andrew
[Read the article: Former DNC head switches allegiance]
[Read more letters about this article: Here]Bravo. So few people in America do the right thing anymore, this is refreshing.
I wish him good luck in weathering the storm of hate coming his way.
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Cabick, she need more than 2SD's to chage
[Read the article: Former DNC head switches allegiance]
[Read more letters about this article: Here]Just recalculated all the #'s and here is the scenario...
Hillary currently at +22 Super Delegates. I am giving her all 19 of Edwards pledged delegates and 80% of all remaining undecided Super Delegates. And both of these are, of course, huge assumptions.
That puts her down 2,035 - 1,845 (-190) with 501 pledged delegates in play.
In order to win by 1 (2,191 to 2,190)...
She needs to pick up the vast majority of the remaining pledged delegates in play. That means winning all remaining states by 69% - 31%, a +38% margin of victory.
If he picked up every single undeclared SD she's need to win every state from here on out by 58% - 42%, a +16% margin of victory.
How likely is all of this? I leave that for you to debate.
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Swinck
[Read the article: Former DNC head switches allegiance]
[Read more letters about this article: Here]Look at my numbers and stop making stuff up. You made that up about all the remaining undeclares giving it to Hillary.
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Here is the key difference
[Read the article: Former DNC head switches allegiance]
[Read more letters about this article: Here]The ability to get anything done in modern America.
That's it.
Hillary and Obama's policy platforms are almost identical, Hillary's nonsense pandering aside. So, the question becomes this - who can make these simialr policies into reality? Knowing that we will never have a majority worth a damn in the House or (especially) Senate.
Hillary is, sadly, a polarizing figure. I have spent years defending her and asking people why they hate her - and I never get a straight response. It is irrational, but real. It is primal with these rightwing nutjobs.
Many in the GOP, and many of the GOP voting block, will never accept anything that she promotes. We've seen this with healthcare in the 90's - her stamp of approval is enough to kill anything. And that would have benefitted exactly that group of people who were instrumental in killing it. They hate Hillary. Sad, but true.
This is going to be an awful 4 years to be President. Tough sacrifices will be necessary. Unpopular policies will have to be sold. Could there be a worse choice to do this than Hillary, a polarizing figure? If she gets elected the GOP immediately sets its sights on 2012 and the country is at war with itself for 4 more years.
Might they do the same to Obama? Sure. But Obama has at least the chance to be a consensus builder like Reagan and Bill Clinton. And 90% of what Presidents do is sell ideas by making pretty speeches. We need this - for refocusing the GWOT, to starting the process of getting off oil (a much loftier goal than going to the moon), and repairing the economy. No POTUS since FDR will have worked as hard by the time the first term is over.
Hillary would be a fine President, I've said that many times even in the face of hateful attacks by Hillary supporters. But this is the simple reason I choose Obama. We need to get our act together and stop the nonsense.