Letters to the Editor
bostonMA
Published Letters: 36 Editor's Choice: 22
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Defining a "down" economy
[Read the article: The general election and the economy]
[Read more letters about this article: Here]Advance apologies for the extended post.
It's my hope that third parties (be they Green, Libertarian, Independent, Socialist, etc) will be highly influential in this election. Such an outcome will add to the sphere of ideas in public discourse, and perhaps broaden the discussion beyond flag pins and populist economic measures like suspended gasoline taxes. Many Americans, and indeed much of the world, have to wonder if the best this nation has to offer is found in the likes of Senators McCain, Obama, and Clinton.
In terms of major issues that will confront voters this November:
- Continued appearance of price inflation, including record energy prices (oil, gas, electricity), food prices, and apparel prices, all resulting in reduced purchasing power for those who are paid or who have saved in US dollars.
- A recessionary environment characterized by increased unemployment, increasing long-term interest rates and reduced availability of credit, declining home values, and a declining US stock market. Americans will feel much poorer than they have in many years.
- Unprecedented new purchases of US companies by foreign entities, including sovereign wealth funds, which may shock the collective conscience of Americans. These investments will occur with increasing frequency as foreigners seeks to divest their US dollar holdings any way they can before they lose even more value. Expect government hearings and new legislation to restrict foreign ownership, which will only create new problems.
- Massive amounts of new government debt driven by expanded entitlement programs and stimulus programs produced by politicians who will pass populist measures to remain in power. The bidding war for votes will come from both parties.
- Further expansion of military actions in the Middle East, including active engagement with Iran. Voters will also be confronted with new claims of "national security concerns" as US activity throughout the region broadens, including added efforts in Afghanistan, Iraq, and a push for more military access within Pakistan. New domestic powers may also be claimed by the government in the name of national security in conjunction with this push.
The consequence of these factors will keep the economy front and center in November, as the US continues to record massive budget deficits, unprecedented national debt levels, and the purchasing power of the dollar continues to decline. I also expect to see the government and media frame China, Russia, Venezuela, and economic powers in the Middle East more firmly as looming "enemies" of U.S. interests.
To the extent that the public will blame the incumbent President for many of these problems (as well they should, though plenty of blame rests with the legislative branch), the advantage will go to the Democrats nationally. However, the depth of despair that will be felt by many may shift public sentiment towards hope in "experienced" leadership, creating opportunities on both sides in a McCain / Obama contest.
Barack Obama's national election rides on his choice for Vice President, who needs to be credible, experienced, and incorporate the anti-establishment message that has carried Obama thus far. Clinton is not this choice. The Presidency is now Obama's to lose, particularly if he fails to paint McCain as a muddling, reinvented protege of Bush.
For McCain, he would be well advised to pick a next-generation, centrist running mate and frame Obama as an elitist, European-style socialist. McCain's recent hard shift to the right in an attempt to motivate the demoralized religious and neoconservative base that re-elected the current President is the strategy of someone running in a Republican party primary, not a successful strategy for national election in this environment.
For myself, I'm hoping to find a compelling third choice on the ballot this November.