I'm disappointed to not see any firm information on the accuracy of predictions in the Intrade market. As a previous poster noted, the market price is derived by a correlative effect based on the number of people who agree that something is/isn't likely to happen. The significant information therefore isn't trade price, or even movement in the trading price, but an overall predictive ratio.

Intrade markets should really be evaluated very similarly to weathermen. If a weatherman (weatherperson, whatever) estimates a 50% chance of rain tomorrow, 50% of the time that should be the result. In the long term, if it only rains 40% of the days the prediction is 50%, then it's more interesting and useful to realize that the weatherman is only 80% accurate.

Clearly the article is more intended to explore the ethical issues of Intrade markets, and I wonder how much of this is relevance vs. how much is laziness. How "dead on" are the markets?

The last trade on AIRSTRIKE.IRAN.JUN06 this morning was at 16.5. After reading this article, I should have a good feel for whether I should rationally buy or short this contract without basing my decision on some kind of vote about how I feel about airstrikes on Iran. If anything, predictive measurements might give journalists a jump on what questions they should be asking at press briefings prior to events unfolding.

So what I'm curious about isn't so much whether Bush can be impeached for this, but whether he's now open to civil action from those whose privacy he illegally violated? If Paula Jones can get a judge to allow her to sue a sitting President based on harrassment, shouldn't these victims have equal protection?

Since I think it's fairly obvious that anyone who has been spied on has a valid cause of action, how do they find out they've been targeted? Are FIA requests enough, or would one have to file suit and then subpoena inforation regarding any potential wiretap?

While I applaud Salon and other media outlets for publishing these images, I still have to wonder about the others alluded to by Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), Seymor Hersch, and Don Rumsfeld.

On May 7, 2004, Sen. Graham is quoted as saying "The American public needs to understand we're talking about rape and murder here. we're not just talking about giving people a humiliating experience."

While I don't particularly want to see those images, I know that this chapter in our history can't be fully addressed and closed until all of the material is out there and processed. I'm disgusted by what's been done in my name and my country's name, and the only thing that could make it worse (from a moral perspective) is for us all to bury these crimes and pretend they never happened.

It's time for a catharsis.