I have to wonder if these space cases at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue and the various 'experts' enabling them have thought about what will happen if/when/should Allawi actually be installed. I mean, what happens if the Allawi government tells us to leave.-- Iokannan in the Well

Iokannan, I am new to researching information on the web, but found this interesting analysis of the oil law this morning while poking about. The entire article is worth reading and I would really like to hear what others here think about it. According to the quotes below, it's highly unlikely that Allawi will ask the US to leave anytime soon. Looks more like we are setting up 'Saddam Redux', complete with his own military backup already in place, and the administration is hoping that they can maintain better control over this "new and improved" version than they had over the last incarnation.

http://www.arabmediawatch.com/amw/Articles/Analysis/tabid/75/newsid395/4100/What-is-holding-up-the-Iraqi-oil-law/Default.aspx

What is holding up the Iraqi oil law?

By Arab Media Watch member Munir Chalabi

22 August 2007

Conclusions:

1. The legislation of the new Iraqi Oil & Gas Law by the Iraqi parliament has become the most important benchmark of the US Administration, its oil lobbies, the IOCs, the IMF, and the occupying forces. The Bush administration wants this law to be passed as soon as possible, whatever the cost to the Iraqi people.

2. The failure of the US policies in the occupation of Iraq, the success of the Democratic Party in the 2006 elections in controlling both legislative houses in the US, and the presidential elections next year, have made the Bush Administration and its allies more desperate in their attempts to reach a successful conclusion on the oil law in order to prepare the ground for a partial US withdrawal from Iraq, within the lifetime of this administration.

3. This has led to enormous pressure being imposed by the US administration and its forces on the ground in Iraq on Al-Maliki's government in the past eight months. They insisted that the government should go ahead and get this oil law approved by parliament, together with the re-Baathification law, and other privatization laws such as the privatization of the Iraqi oil processing industries which they succeeded in passing through parliament three days before the start of summer session.

4. The Bush Administration and their Ambassador in Baghdad had openly threatened to replace Al-Maliki's government with a new government, headed by their man in Iraq -- the old Baathist, Iyad Allawi. Al-Maliki has openly accused Allawi in several speeches of attempting to overthrow his government with the help of some units of the Iraqi army and security generals including the head of the Iraqi security forces, the old Baathist general Mohammed Al-Shahwani. These generals were appointed to their positions during Allawi's appointed government by the last US official administrator Paul Bremer back in May 2004, and are still taking their orders directly from the US embassy in Baghdad.

5. The US administration recognized that a US-led military coup d'etat would not result in any laws being recognized as legitimate by the international community if parliament were to be dissolved. They therefore moved to a new policy, which involved direct interference with the political process in Iraq through their more reliable allies to reorganize the political alliance on which the government relied in order to achieve their goals. They finally succeeded in achieving the establishment of such a front, which was called the "The front of the moderates" on August 15, between the two main Kurdish parties (KDP and PUK), two of the Shiite parties (the SCIRI and Al-Dawa party -- the Al-Maliki wing is called the "External organization"), with negotiations still ongoing to persuade the Islamic Party/Accord front -- the main Sunni party -- to join this new alliance...

7. The US Administration is aware that time is not on their side, especially when it concerns the oil law. They now recognize that as more people come to understand the law, this will increase the chance of its defeat. This was the main reason behind all the attempted secrecy that surrounded any information about the oil law.