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Bush was up by 2.4% the day before the election in 2004, so your premise is invalid. Check your facts first, please, before you accuse. Polling is an inexact science, but to glom onto some desperate "the polls are always wrong" theory in the hopes of a miracle McCain comeback is just, well, sad.
Part of the concern about tightening in PA stems from a lack of understanding of statistics and probability. Two things most folks don't really seem to get:
1. A 5 point lead in a state at this point in the election cycle is quite substantial and unlikely to be overcome. For instance, in a state like Pennsylvania, with about 7.2 million registered voters, a 5% lead equals about 350,000 votes. That's a huge margin, which is why 5 points at this stage works out to about a 98% chance of winning the state.
2. Leads rarely change late in the game, and the larger the sample, the more likely the numbers are to be accurate. That's why you see networks projecting winners of an election in a large state after only 10% of the vote has been tabulated--10% of a large voter pool represents a pretty reliable projection of what the final numbers will be.
So a 5% lead in a state with this many registered voters, where Democrats hold a large lead in voter registration...PA is a lock. Tightening only means the polls have gone from "Not a chance in Hell" for McCain to "OK, a teeny, weeny chance for McCain if 500,000 Democrats get stuck in traffic on Nov. 4."
I believe federal election law mandates that anyone in line must be allowed to vote. It's going to be a long, late night for poll workers.
I took one for the team and went to Free Republic to see what America's Favorite Foam-Flecked Bigots are saying about Mrs. Dunham's passing and found this representative gem from someone named Cricket:
May have succumbed to Broken Heart considering what a crack-head, lying, racist and America hater her zebra Grandson turned out to be. Undoubtedly, her daughter was even more of a low life. Ms. Madelyn was probably very sad in her later years.
Charming, eh?
First of all, somethingstinks, I'm not your dear.
Second, Sarah Palin chose to run for national office. Therefore, she's wearing a big fat target on her back, no different from any other public official or celebrity. She's fair game. Does that excuse vile personal attacks that call her a c**t and other such things? Of course not. However, it does put her legitimately in the crosshairs for people who have called her unqualified, a phony, power-abusing, a theocrat, and an incurious George Bush in drag. I've posted such comments myself.
Ms. Dunham did not run for office. Her death is being used as an ugly platform for personal attacks on her grandson and on her by association. That's no different than someone attacking John McCain's adopted daughter or Joe Biden's late first wife. Some things should be off limits, assuming one has decency. Apparently, the denizens of Free Republic do not.
Now, I will not waste any more time with you, and I suggest the other posters do the same. Nothing infuriates a troll more than to be ignored.
I'll be watching and toasting with my next door neighbors here in California, a lesbian couple who are ready to see Proposition 8, the gay marriage ban initiative, go down to defeat. Here's to a momentous election.
I concur with many of the posters here in saying that Obama's likely election is just the beginning of a multi-stage process that should take 20 years but has already been launched by groups like Progressive Majority and Democracy for America. Its goals:
1. Bring more true progressives into government at all levels——Congress, governors' mansions, state legislatures——while ejecting the cowering Blue Dogs who lack the guts to stand on true progressive principles such as fair labor practices, environmental protection, universal healthcare and a new immigration policy.
2. Marginalize the hate-filled, wacko Christian/ignorant bigot portion of the Right. Destroy the Neoconservative movement under a tide of derision, historical research and exposure.
3. Prosecute those in the Bush government who can be realistically prosecuted and who have committed crimes (provided we can find enough courts and judges; there will be a lot of trials).
4. Restore the balance of power within our government and roll back monstrosities like the Patriot Act and the FISA immunity bill, putting to rest forever the concept of the unitary executive.
5. Reform our campaign finance system so that special interests cannot ever again exert such influence over our government as they did under Bush.
Yep, it's quite a list. 20 years at least, but Obama is a start. We've still got plenty of work to do.
In my experience, it takes more than one beat-down for a group to learn that it must change a long-cherished ideology. The hardcore Right--the ones who rely on division, hate speech, fear of The Other and fear as their major electoral tools--will not surrender that approach even after a crushing electoral defeat. They'll write this off as a fluke and blame Bush, Palin, the media, the economy, etc. It will take a shattering 400 EV defeat in 2012 to convince them that they need to change their political approach, just as it took terrible defeats in 2000 and 2004 to convince the Democrats that they could not win a presidential election by being mealy-mouthed, passive, equivocating simulacrums of the Republicans.
Expect the same ugly, divisive, bigoted tactics for the next four years, but also expect them not to work.
Good. I don't want to see Obama pander to the Right in some mealy-mouthed attempt to create "unity." The Right doesn't care about unity; they will try to destroy this new president. Here's to Rahm E. keeping his Boss on a progressive, aggressive track.
You can't improve on that statement. It has to stand on its own as a shining example to overreaching, self-important bimbi everywhere.
Bimbi = plural of bimbo.
"Sucking the gay out of men's penises?" That is SO wrong, yet somehow, so right.