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khengsta

Published Letters: 64
Editor's Choice: 2

Thursday, May 21, 2009 08:46 PM

@runfastandwin

" ... The dollar remains by the far the best of worst, and will remain so for the foreseeable future..."

Best of the worst? Keep in mind that one significant factor which kept the US$ running high has nothing to do with the soundness of its fundamentals (or lack thereof).

As I understand it, many major institutions liquidated their positions (and by extension bought US$) because they needed the cash on hand. Funds were bracing for investors seeking redemptions. Liquidity was at the time necessary for survival. That has NOTHING to do with a belief in the soundness of the US economy. They bought US$ because they HAD to. This created a self-perpetuating cycle. All this activity created a short term demand for the dollar, which in turn shored up the US$. At that point, nervous investors seeing the relative stability of the US$ decided to park their money there. Cycle perpetuated itself.

However, now that the waters have calmed a little, and there is no immediate need for these institutions to have that much cash on hand (thanks to TARP and now that the stress tests have concluded), you can bet that the movement of capital is going to flow in the reverse direction. How can it not? The deficit has ballooned to gargantuan proportions. The Fed and the US Treasury has all but promised that they will be printing money ("Quantitative Easing" anyone?). All the major holders of US T-bills have started to grumble about having their arms twisted to buy more US paper. Someone has already posted the news that China is diversifying into bullion, and has for some time made clear its dissatisfaction with the US$ being the world's de facto reserve currency. Already in Japan, the DPJ (which looks set to becoming the next Government) has included in its platform the proposal that in the future, US debt bought by Japan be denominiated in Japanese Yen.

What does this all mean? The world, having been burned once already, will not have the same appetite for US debt. They will be looking to diversify their reserves. The US$ WILL take a nosedive. This is a certainty.

You say there are no better alternatives. That is at best true only for the short term. As we can clearly see, all the big boys are proactively searching for an alternative. My advice to you would be to make your way to the exit before the impending stampede.

Wednesday, May 27, 2009 07:22 PM

Unbelievable!

Does the Republican Study Committee seriously believe that backing hedge fund speculators is the way to go? We are talking about speculators who are opting for Chrysler's bankruptcy over taking a "haircut" on their bonds because they figured they'll get more from the insurance on their bonds. Of course, the only reason that AIG is capable of paying out on those claims is becaus of government guarantees and massive taxpayer money infusions. So in effect, these bondholders are saying "No thanks on rescuing Chrysler. I would rather take your tax dollars to bail me out."

Seriously, Republicans, this is your sales pitch?

LOL, I can practically see their TV spot now.

[Corporate Fat Cat, seated, black background]

"Obama says he's a uniter. I gotta say, I had high hopes. Its been so long since we had a President who understands the problems of the top 3%. Instead, he's been a huge disappointment. He told my hedge fund today 'You're gonna take a hit on your Chrysler bonds so we can rescue the company'. Easy for him to say - do you have any idea how much Beluga Caviar costs? Or a Gulfstream Jet? Sigh ... Hans, my Swedish masseuse, tells me he has never seen me this tense"

[Cut to another corporate fat cat, with sleeves rolled up]

"I was brought up to believe that America was the land of opportinity. Where you could get ahead with nothing more than the sweat on your brow. Now this Socialist President wants to ruin me! I gotta take a haircut so that some blue collar slobs can keep their jobs? Thats not the America I know! When I started my hedge fund, I had nothing more than the shirt on my back, $300 Million from Pops and his country club buddies, and a dream.These people need to stop looking to the Government for a handout! If I could pull myself up by the bootstraps, so can they!"

[Fade to Black ... cue omnious voice of commentator]

"The top 3% know that its Free Enterprise is what made America great. Yet this President continues to make populist, unsound, SOCIALIST decisions aimed at America's elite. This President hopes to keep unemployment down by arm-twisting hardworking executives to keep companies afloat. But at what cost? Can we in good conscience condemn America's elite to a life of semi-luxury? Is this the America you want for your children?"

[Cut to image of cute, blond, curly haired, smiling 5 year old kid, preferrably missing two front teeth]

"This message was brought to you by the Republican Study Committee"

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