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Wednesday, February 18, 2009 05:00 PM

@arroyocat

Rebecca, your article turned me off after your first paragraph

Good. Does that mean that you'll finally go away and stop posting your twaddle here?

Thursday, February 19, 2009 06:30 AM
Original article: Judging autism

Certainty, and the Risk-Benefit tradeoff

Yes. Certainty. Some people absolutely freak out over the idea that nothing can be guaranteed beyond a shadow of a doubt. People actually believe that something can be made completely risk-free.

As an engineer, I get this all the time from lay-people. I design systems that are capable of hurting or killing people, or burning down a city block. The best I can do is use "Due Diligence" that I have taken every reasonable step to ensure safety. I use techniques which have been standardized and tested up the wazoo. They are backed by properly designed scientific studies and reams of data. Some of this is PYA, for sure, but I also want to be able to sleep at night, so I usually go a little further. I'm a compassionate, responsible human being who wants everyone using my systems to be safe on the job. It's a responsibility I take very seriously. Yet, I cannot guarantee that anything I design is 100% safe. The best I can do is express the risk of problems as a probability.

At the end of the day, and that goes for everything, one must always ask themselves, Is the Game worth the Candle? Are the probabilities of me being better off far outweighed by the probability of injury, if I decide to do "X"?

While any data suggesting a causal link between vaccinations and childhood injury are tenuous at best, it is possible that a child may be harmed, in some way, by a vaccination. It is definitely true that some children will die from choking on a marshmallow, or by getting their head stuck in a bannister and snapping their necks.

However, no scientist worth his salt will ever say that something is 100% safe, or that, beyond a doubt, X caused Y.

Of course, there are endless crackpots, cranks, cooks, criminals and charlatans who would be more than happy to tell you what you want to hear, and charge you dearly for the priveledge- especially if you're desperately ill or in distress. Don't believe me? just go to the next "alternative" health fair. Ask questions, and if you truly want to be open-minded and learn something, bring a trained scientist with you, and have them engage the vendors to explain how their little gadget or nostrum actually works, and let them do all the talking. You'll be astonished at what you hear.

Whenever a child is taken from us, either partially or completely, it is a tragedy. Parents are devastated, they want someone(thing) to blame, prospective parents are scared, and want to keep their dear ones safe. Who can keep a cool, rational head under such pain? Nonetheless, there are no shortage of really despicable people out there who have no problem with exploiting parent's pain, fear, and desperation while they search for some comfort and understanding. There is a special place in hell for those types, and I detest what they do.

The benefits of vaccines are well-documented. The data we have thus far, clearly show that the benefits, both to the child and to society, far outweigh the risks. Yet, there are risks, but hopefully minisucle ones.

You take a risk every time you wake up to start your day.

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