Pretty much any year-over-year economic statistic is going to look terrible right now. That's because the wheels fell off last fall.

If we're looking for a bottom, it makes sense to compare month-to-month numbers. But of course it's not that easy, because so many things (house sales, car sales, etc.) have strong seasonality components. So you need to look at the month-to-month, seasonally adjusted numbers (details of how to do the latter are beyond the scope of this post).

I analyze car sales stats every month. While I felt industry sales were not sustainable at 16+M cars a year in the US, I never thought I'd see the industry contract by 40% (vs. 2005-7 averages) in under 2 years. Holy frickin cow.

Having said that, I just ran the numbers and see the following. This is 2009 monthly vehicle sales vs. the monthly averages for 2005-7. I skipped 2008 because the wheels were already starting to fall off.

Jan 59.8%

Feb 54.9%

Mar 55.3%

Apr 57.3%

May 61.0%

There's a pretty clear bottom in Feb-March, even before Chrysler tanked. This data is no reason to get too excited (a contraction of ~40% is pretty damn painful, as even Toyota, whose trend is only a few points better than the industry, can tell you). But it's one piece of evidence that a bottom for something, somewhere, has been found. Let's just hope it's not a local minimum.

Ok, smarty-pants:

1. Prices drop in response to a drop in demand. Got it.

2. See the following trends for selected non-bankrupt OEMs. Also, please note that my point wasn't about the 40% drop (other than to note it was huge), it was the apparent bottom in Mar-Apr:

Ford 2009

Jan 48.9%

Feb 42.1% <=

Mar 45.9%

Apr 52.3%

May 59.1%

Honda 2009

Jan 75.9%

Feb 68.2%

Mar 66.2% <=

Apr 75.6%

May 72.1%

Nissan 2009

Jan 68.8%

Feb 64.6%

Mar 62.5%

Apr 56.7% <=

May 74.1% (!)

Subaru 2009

Jan 99.4%

Feb 95.7%

Mar 89.6% <=

Apr 100.8%

May 111.3%

Toyota 2009

Jan 73.7%

Feb 63.5%

Mar 60.1%

Apr 59.2% <=

May 64.8%

VW 2009

Jan 82.7% <= (actually the bottom was 12/08)

Feb 86.5%

Mar 86.1%

Apr 85.6%

May 97.0% (!)

You do realize that I posted figures for automakers that are not currently taxpayer subsidized (in any new way, at least)? And that in each case they appear to have hit some sort of minimum?

If your theory were correct, shouldn't Chrysler and GM be stealing market share from these guys?

Do you have any facts to support your theory?

A lot of words in the article, and a lot of words in the comments.

I'd just like to report that my wife and I are coming up on our 11th anniversary (& 17 years together), have 4 kids, and are happy as worms in dirt.

That's not to say it's always easy or fun, we don't have droughts in the sack, etc. But for us, it's awesome, on balance. Passion? Any couple that can still get it on after watching "New In Town", possibly one of the worst romantic comedies ever, still has passion.

And what's wrong with having to work at a marriage? Yes, we deliberately work on our relationship. But being good at anything takes training, takes work.

It'd be nice to get it right the first time, but how about we start by... starting?

Who, pray tell, is going to be able to push a better bill than Waxman-Markey through Congress in the next 3.x years? How? Convince me how that will happen and I'll be happy to dump W-M. But I don't see it.

Something to think about-

http://www.epa.gov/air/caa/caa_history.html:

The Air Pollution Control Act of 1955

* First federal air pollution legislation

* Funded research for scope and sources of air pollution

Clean Air Act of 1963

* Authorized the development of a national program to address air pollution related environmental problems

* Authorized research into techniques to minimize air pollution

Air Quality Act of 1967

* Authorized enforcement procedures for air pollution problems involving interstate transport of pollutants

* Authorized expanded research activities

Clean Air Act 1970

* Authorized the establishment of National Ambient Air Quality Standards

* Established requirements for State Implementation Plans to achieve the National Ambient Air Quality Standards

* Authorized the establishment of New Source Performance Standards for new and modified stationary sources

* Authorized the establishment of National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants

* Increased enforcement authority

* Authorized requirements for control of motor vehicle emissions

1977 Amendments to the Clean Air Act of 1970

* Authorized provisions related to the Prevention of Significant Deterioration

* Authorized provisions relating to areas which are non-attainment with respect to the National Ambient Air Quality Standards

1990 Amendments to the Clean Air Act of 1970

* Authorized programs for Acid Deposition Control

* Authorized a program to control 189 toxic pollutants, including those previously regulated by the National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants

* Established permit program requirements

* Expanded and modified provisions concerning the attainment of National Ambient Air Quality Standards

* Expanded and modified enforcement authority

Excellent article, but the proper blog link is:

http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/analysis/stavins/

I think the ZipCar CEO is on target. Car sharing is still a new, weird concept; aggressively adding another new, weird concept (like EVs) to the mix is a big risk.

I hope that ZipCar finds that EVs are a good fit for them. But I can't fault them for taking an incremental approach.

I agree with the Tree guy; well done.

Here's the best nunchuck video on Youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VSbT1RycDY4

I seldom take pleasure at others' self-inflicted injuries, but I do make exceptions.

0.4%? Is that month-over-month? Seasonally adjusted? Year-over-year? If year-over-year, how sucky was last June? 0.4% compared to what?

I'm going to start a movement, the Society for the Promotion of Well-Described Percentages (couldn't think of anything that makes for a snappier acronym).

And what are typical numbers for capacity? Is 67.8%, which must be low if its the lowest in 42 years, just quite low or insanely low compared to prior years?

Can someone report meaningful context with these stats? Andrew, help!