Took 'em awhile, but here it is:

www.thesmokinggun.com/archive/years/2007/0828071craig1.html

Or, click on my sig- same link.

This whole Administration has been rather Pythonesque. Too bad this comedy has consequences.

Hell, we can't predict climate (I'm not talking about weather, which is known to be a chaotic system and thus unpredictable) very well, despite understanding the underlying physics and chemistry quite well. The players in a stock market are ruled by the much less well understood dynamics of human psychology. While it may often be helpful to make the rational-actor assumption that was pushed on us in microeconomics class, in times of particular uncertainty a lot of that goes out the window.

Making predictions based on past results is useful when you have a really, really good understanding of the underlying dynamics of a system. I don't think anyone has such an understanding of the stock market (if anyone does, they are right to keep quiet about it). The Long Term Capital Management people, who were absolutely brilliant, thought they had it figured out, and look what happened to them!

I'm with Nassim Taleb; the stock market is full of Black Swans:

Before the discovery of Australia, Europeans thought that all swans were white, and it would have been considered completely unreasonable to imagine swans of any other color. The first sighting of a black swan in Australia, where black swans are, in fact, rather common, shattered that notion. The moral of this story is that there are exceptions out there, hidden away from our eyes and imagination, waiting to be discovered by complete accident. What I call a "Black Swan" is an exceptional unpredictable event that, unlike the bird, carries a huge impact.

http://tinyurl.com/ynmku2

So there's a conspiracy to hide Ted Williams' home/away stats for prior to 1957? That's priceless.

I found data for 1941. I'll probably get knocked off by the Williams secret-keepers for daring to look at that.

By my math, Williams hit .433 home, .380 road. Big deal. In 2004, Bonds hit .412 at home and .314 on the road. Yeah, I know other years Bonds hit better on the road, etc. It's called statistical noise, get over it.

Same with pitching. Sure, Williams didn't have to face Gagne in his prime, but he didn't get to play in Denver, either. With body armor. And the clear.

Enjoy your mission to bring down every other player to promote your man. You cherry pick information with the best of 'em- you missed your calling to serve in the current Administration (or maybe...).

I don't think anyone debates that Bonds is a great hitter. But there seems to be a pretty compelling case that he did things that he wasn't supposed to that made him an even better hitter. That's problematic.

I'm done here.

BTW Good article, King. Thanks for taking the long view.

Given the number of posts you have on this thread, I hesitate to respond.

However, I can't take some things sitting down.

Over the last four years of his career, at least (that's the only years for which I could find home/away splits) Ted Williams had more home runs, RBIs, and OPS on the road than at Fenway.

Also, he was a lefty. The Green Monster is in left field.

Also, Fenway is 420 to center, with a 17 ft. wall.

And of course Ted missed several years in his prime serving his country.

Seriously. Just to watch the reactions.

Is Newt positioning himself as a uniter, not a divider? Unreal.

Seamonkey,

Does the $500 for a used iBook include automatic offsite storage? If you wanted that, I just found a service that backs up Macs offsite for $18/mo + $4-6/mo per GB. Yikes!

Does the used iBook include an upgrade to the next version of OS X? iLife (if they ever update it)? If the used iBook craps out within the next three years, will the guy you bought it from send you a new one, like Zonbu says they will?

I am not arguing that Zonbu is good for everyone. A used iBook is great choice for a lot of people.

But what gets at me is that people seem to think that buying a used iBook, a mini, or whatever you might find in a dumpster is equivalent to what you get for your Zonbu subscription. Buying a computer *does not* include automatic offsite storage, software upgrades, a 3 year warranty, etc., so most of the price comparisons in others' letters are at least as bogus as calling the Zonbu a $99 computer.

Again, I have nothing to do with Zonbu; I just passionate in thinking it's such a terrible idea for specific markets (e.g. 2nd/3rd home pc, kid's pc, novice pc, lightweight home server, cheap toy to hack, etc.).