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Thursday, November 19, 2009 07:56 PM

Good essay, Amanda

I could tell something was in the air a week or so ago when the star of Grey's Anatomy, Dr. Steamy McDreamy (or whatever his name is), was pronounced "going rogue" for defying his superiors and performing a high risk surgery. The surgery saved the patient's life.

It was a signal that Oprah and Barbara would use their time not to bury Sarah, but to praise her. At least a little. She had leverage now: strong GOP horse race numbers, a top pre-selling book, and perhaps most importantly -- the ability to confer high ratings to chosen networks.

Next, there was the preview Oprah clip, where Sarah neutralized the Couric question with a faint laugh and authentic charm.

After that, it was clean up time. Strong performances on Fox, and then off to the book tour. I saw her briefly today -- she is far more charismatic and beautiful than cameras can capture. (I say this with prudence, adopting the young Don Corleone principle from Godfather II than only a man's wife is truly beautiful to him).

The results are coming in. Fox has her tonight at 47-42 on national favorability, which is all the more remarkable considering that Huckabee's favorability is just 45, and Romney and Gingrich are both at 38. Obama is at 46.

Among Republicans, she's the most popular by far, at 70%. So much for being a niche phenomenon. Apples to apples, she's gone from 39% to 47% in Fox since July. People are giving her another look.

Let's close out with an allusion from Anchorman: she's kind of a big deal. Or, if you like, from Hyman Roth and Godfather II: she's bigger than U.S. Steel.

Thursday, November 19, 2009 04:57 AM

@dwg

A couple quick points to your thoughtful message.

1. Thermidorian reaction. I thought that was clever.

I wasn't referring to the reign of terror, but rather, the idea of pulling back after a lurch to the left. The Thermidors did not wish to restore the Bourbons, but to simply slow down the revolution.

Here, Palin is not a throwback to Goldwater 1964, or even Gingrich 1994, in terms of deconstructing the federal government. She's simply saying: we have too much debt to support Obamacare, and you don't pass expensive energy taxes when unemployment is at 10% and the earth's temperature hasn't risen for the last 11 years.

Makes sense to me. You might even call it common sense. Or common sense conservatism.

2. I'm not sure if I mentioned this before. When I started posting last year, I was in the middle of Conrad Black's thousand or so page hagiography of Richard Nixon.

I wanted to read a rare pro-Nixon book, not to "confirm" my Republican leanings, but because Nixon had such a fascinating, Machiavellian, often successful career, and few people ever study how he really did it -- against long odds, for much of the way.

In turn, I see lots of similarities with Palin, in terms of her strategems. One example: Nixon's own aides did not know what his long range Vietnam policy would be the night he gave his Silent Majority speech. He wanted the element of surprise.

In Palin's case, local reporters were still pulling into her driveway for the press conference the moment she announced her resignation, and national reporters had no notice at all.

Looking back, this was all part of an MBA-style business plan, culminating in her newly announced $100 per autograph book sales, with all proceeds going to her PAC. Talk about a dynamic presidential campaign fund raiser. Too bad she isn't smart, right?

3. This is just a hobby for me, posting here and there in my free moments. Look at those people in Grand Rapids, in their tents. They are the truly hopeless supporters, as the Russian premier would say. :) I'm mild by comparison.

Thursday, November 19, 2009 12:28 AM

@dwg -- insomniatic response

You asked for three accomplishments.

1. She broke a 30-year logjam to pave the way for Alaska's natural gas pipeline. Open bids start next summer.

2. She ushered in the nation's most transparent state ethics law, which is very good for attracting new business. It was abused against her, but it's still a good law, and good for Alaska's economy.

3. She opposed the Obama stimulus in Alaska. Her legislature overruled it when it looked good, and promised to keep unemployment under 8%. Now, Palin's opposition looks good -- our president is bowing all over Asia to beg for new borrowed funds, even while unemployment soars.

But wait, you say, wouldn't things be worse without the stimulus? Actually, no. The 75% of borrowings which occurred domestically could have been deployed locally instead, in local companies and local banks, for local car and house loans, rather than being sent to Washington for cocktails and uneven redistribution. The stimulus is a flop, and Palin called it correctly.

* * *

Why did she resign? I've covered this before. Shortly before she did so, there was a story in the New York Times covering details of her daily habits in office (phone calls to national political figures and such) and second guessing her judgment.

How did the NYT know this stuff? It was leaked illegally to them from the discovery efforts stemming from one of the ethics complaints.

Palin, I think, wants to run for president, and she could never prep adequately in 2009 and 2010 in that kind of environment. Before you know it, there would have been bogus ethics complaints that her PAC and book deal initiatives were overlapping with official business, and every single one of her papers -- including drafts of the book itself -- would have been discovered as part of the complaint process and leaked to a compliant press.

Palin took all of this and threw it upside down on its head. And smiled. And laughed. And made a lot of money, to boot.

As I said before, she looks really strong this week. I think she's doing quite well.

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