You have to put yourself in the position of a "platform Republican," if you can, and imagine their outlook. Many of them I know have been saying forget Bush, forget McCain, let's try something new. Especially if something new sounds moderate and appealing. Some of these people get their news from the likes of CNN or associated press stories - rather than clutching the latest edition of National Review - so their Obama inclination is gently reinforced. The Wall Street Journal has been discredited to a large extent, even among faithful Republican readers, through its excessive cheerleading for Bush.

Now ask yourself: why would these people "choose" the Obama "platform," if its provisions are antithetical to their interests? That is the issue they are really starting to wrestle with, especially when they look at an all-liberal House and Senate. The Ayres business just gives them an emotional reason to change their mind and cross back over. For some of these people, they're just going to vote for a Ford-esque veto, not for McCain, per se. It's unfortunate, but true. The question is: how many are in that boat, and will it show up in the polls?

I suppose to a point, I am still cherry picking polls as you suggest. I watch realclearpolitics.com. If memory serves, today they had Zogby 4, Rasmussen 5, Hotline 6, and Gallup 7 (likely voters, which is more accurate) and 10 with registered voters (less accurate). I think Zogby has historically been the best, so it's good news for McCain they are his best poll, at least for a day.

I think McCain needs to get it down to about 3 to have a chance for a final push and a win. Right now, the numbers aren't good enough. But they aren't terrible, either, with the stock market moving up. As I said earlier, I think there are more wavering right-of-center people right now than wavering left-of-center people, and that could help McCain if the markets keep moving up.

As far as other polls, I frankly don't put much stock in them. The ABC/Post builds in a factor they disclose on their web site where they add something like 150 African American voters to the 1,000 people they call on the assumption I guess that these people are under-surveyed in traditional phone samples. They might be right, of course, but it strikes me as just a purely speculative way of adding points for the Democrat. I prefer to watch the polls like Zogby where they can point to prior presidential tracking results and show you how well their methodology stood up.

Like I said before, I think the key to this election will be wavering Republican voters.

For years, the media has talked about, and/or hoped for, a crack-up between pro-life and pro-choice Republicans. Remember all those breathless reports from convention platform meetings? Ironically, such talk reached a fevered pitch in 2000, only to see the liberal coalition crack just a bit with Ralph Nader and deny Al Gore the election.

Today, I see the Republicans not just as pro-life and pro-choice, but as middle income pro-lifers and upper income pro-choicers. Evangelicals are more left than ever before on most everything other than abortion. They would be ripe for the Democrats, even class warfare, but for abortion.

So, this year the investment class Republicans are saying that POW tales, and Sarah Palin, do not inspire them, and they are ready for change. And when asked about the tax increases (aimed at them), the union ballot bill (aimed at their businesses), and income redistribution, also aimed at them (tax cuts for non-tax payers), they show little appreciation for what Barack Obama, or his background (ACORN, Jeremiah, etc.) really mean.

When these people wake up and find a Pelosicratic Congress "fighting" for "most" of America - and against them - along with 2 or 3 more pro-choicers on the Supreme Court, there is a real risk (finally) that pro-lifers will tune out, drop out, or even make peace with the Democratic party. They will just give up on Roe v. Wade. And then, instead of 1K rebates for non-taxpayers at the expense of the top 5%, the bidding will go higher, and higher still - more rebates, higher taxes at the top.

The ultimate question in this election, as to wavering Republicans, is the following. It is clear the pro-lifers can tolerate McCain, and Wall Street Journal economics. However, can the rest of the party tolerate them? If not, the promised crack-up could indeed occur.

Yeah, there's that too. Evangelicals don't need the Republican party to reinforce their private faith. And, I don't think they'll mind sticking it to the party's high rollers if they perceive they are to blame for bringing this down. Look at these rallies with Sarah - 20,000+ are becoming routine, which is unheard of for a VP the media would have you believe is a wounded duck. My conversations with wealthy moderate doubters suggest this election could be significant.