A couple three points.

First, "Upperleftcoast" claims Norman Rockwell's America no longer exists, and that Palin's tour will be a circus act.

I disagree with the Rockwell point. The rural midwest is still plenty quaint, and Palin is planning to tour the backroads and small towns.

I agree, however, there is a theatric quality -- you say circus, I say theatric. It's the Colonel Parker effect -- Elvis Presley's manager, who booked him in smaller towns with overflowing crowds to always maintain excitement.

The midwest, where the book tour begins, is famous for this sort of thing. You can go back to the 1893 world's fair in Chicago, which supported a carpenter named Elias Disney, or the famous St. Louis fair of 1904. I have said before that Palin is part Presley and part Disney -- a political showman of the first order.

Second, as for 2012, Palin is two steps ahead of the bear pack, as usual.

Last night, she gave a right-to-life speech to 5,000 in Wisconsin, and stressed the views of Pope John Paul II to a predominantly Catholic audience.

Why notable? Because there is a significant Catholic vote along the Mississippi River in Iowa -- many of them voted Romney in 2008, while evangelicals supported Huckabee. You also have a significant eastern European presence in places like Cedar Rapids. Palin, of course, is an outspoken advocate of missile defense, and we know what happened this year to the Polish and Czech missile defense shield.

I think again of Tom Hagen in Godfather II: "Roth, he played this one beautifully." Substitute Roth for Palin, and that's what you have here, with the book tour preparations.

You ask: how could Obama bolt to the center, when he's already there?

Actually, I think Clinton's bolt with Dick Morris back in '96 is somewhat overrated. As I remember it, Clinton fought tooth and nail with Republicans over the shutdown in 1995, and really only bolted on one issue -- welfare reform -- at a time the economy was improving, and lifting his popularity. The welfare bill was more of a precautionary stab at the anger of '94 -- not unlike Bush's signing of McCain's campaign finance bill to take him out of the picture, and remove an irritant.

Having said that, there are issues like public funding of abortion swirling about the health care debate which fuel intense conservative resentment, and allow anti-Obama sentiment to substitute for genuine conservatism on the ticket. It is also quite possible that opposition to Obama, qua Obama, is so intense that the GOP can ride it all four years, regardless of what he does, and run Deweyesque lite alternatives while snubbing the base.

The interesting thing to me is the centrists who are saying: if we're asked to support a candidate who genuinely excites the right, we won't do it. Ever. Not on the VP slot. Not in New York. Not even if people like Rudy and Pataki support them. That leaves the social conservatives without much room go to nationally. And, it leaves moderate Republicans back where McCain was in June, 2008 if Obama's stock rises.

Speaking of the good life, I snapped out of my election depression a moment ago upon reading the schedule for Palin's book tour.

Two of the first thirteen stops are in my fair state of Indiana; they track the rallies she attended here last year. Better still, she will reportedly stop at small towns along the path. The area in question -- Anderson, Muncie, and Marion -- is basketball nirvana, and I would not be surprised to see our adopted Hoosier gal take a charity shot or two (that's what they used to call free throws here) before departing.

Will I get to see her? I kind of doubt it. The rally I attended -- 12,000-plus people in a minor league hockey barn -- didn't allow for much personal contact. And that was after the tickets sold out in the first hour of a two day offering. (I had to work through back channels to get mine, and even then I couldn't get a third for my daughter).

This book tour is likely to be a big success.