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Chernobyl Kid

Published Letters: 196
Editor's Choice: 19

Tuesday, November 18, 2008 06:18 AM
Original article: The perils of cheap oil

Paint on deck chairs on the Titanic

First of all, you can look at some of my other letters for some discussion on energy and oil. They're kind of interesting.

Specifically, on this discussion of hybrids: People have to stop talking about this as if it's just a matter of switching to electricity. When energy doomers say "there isn't enough energy" what they're really saying is, there are a million things that would have to go right for this to work, and that the first thing you look fails the test, and therefore the system doesn't work. Disproving or disputing the "is there enough energy" question does not resolve the other million.

First of all, where is that electricity going to come from? And don't tell me we'll use the existing system but power up our hybrid car batteries during the off-peak times. I didn't ask you, "where will the distribution infrastructure come from" or "where will the power plants come from." Using the grid during its off-peak times means using fuel during times when it is not currently using fuel. Where will that coal or uranium come from? What will it cost? What will the environmental effects be? Do the math. Show me the numbers.

Wind turbines and solar panels? Where are they going to come from? How long will it take to build the factories to build the wind turbines? Do the math. Do the math. Show me.

How will we get those hybrids out into the market? How many hybrid cars can a hybrid car factory produce per day? How many factories are out there? How long does it take and how much does it cost to build a hybrid car factory or to retool an existing factory to produce hybrids? Do the math. Show me the numbers. Do the math.

How many engineers are out there who can design and work on hybrid engines? It takes five years to turn a high school graduate into an engineer. How long does it take to retrain an automotive engineer to be familiar with hybrid technology? How many universities have professors who can teach new engineers or retrain existing engineers to design hybrid technology? How long will it take to produce those professors? How long before she becomes expert enough to teach others? Where will the money come from to support each engineer while she/he studies the new technology? Do the math. Show me the numbers. No more speculating until someone does the math.

How many engineers will it take to design the factories to build the hybrid cars? Industrial engineering is a different field from automotive engineering.

How many mechanics out there can work on hybrid engines?

Many of these things have to happen in sequence. You can't sell hybrids until you can build them. You can't build hybrids until you have factories and workers and engineers to produce them. You can't build factories and train engineers until you have industrial engineers who know how that works, and professors who can teach the engineers and mechanics. All of these steps take money. They also take actual wealth. And time. How much? How much? Do the math. Do the math. Show me the numbers. Do the math. Do the goddamn math.

How many people will it take to mine the extra uranium or coal that it will take to run the power plants that extra time that they're not currently running? Who will train the extra uranium refinery workers? How long will it take to build more uranium refineries? How much uranium is there out there, anyway? Oh, it doesn't matter, we'll use fast breeder reactors? Fine, how many engineers and scientists out there know how to build fast breeder reactors? How many workers are qualified to work in a fast breeder plant? How long will it take to build the fast breeders? How long will it take to train the workers? (Hint: Not the kind of thing they should be studying from home via DeVry.)

Show me the math. Show me the numbers. Show me the math. Then maybe I'll consider thinking about provisionally accepting for the sake of argument that this is even potentially plausibly feasibly doable. Until then it's all just hot air and I will continue on the assumption that we are about to get medieval in a big way.

Monday, November 24, 2008 05:29 AM

Look, I'm a liberal even by Canadian standards

and I don't yet see what the issue is.

What, exactly, does the progressive wing want?

For my entire life (I'm 37) far-out liberal ideas included

-stop aggressively destroying the planet's ability to support human life;

-regulate industry to keep it from doing the above and to keep it from running itself into the ground

-make sure there are opportunities to get an education that will lead to meaningful work and won't punish your ambition by turning you into a lifelong debt serf;

-make sure that where there are opportunities to get rich, that these opportunities are more or less tied to doing something that is useful or at least not actively destructive;

-stop being a willing hostage to Middle Eastern dictatorships in exchange for the privilege of driving overpowered four-wheel-drive cockmobiles;

-extend full citizenship rights to all citizens, yes, even the queer ones;

-make sure that health care is available, yes, even to people who aren't rich.

Anyone who has taken these ideas seriously in the past thirty years has been labelled a liberal, a socialist or worse. It's only because the "center" has moved to such a ridiculous right-wing extreme that this could happen. Once upon a time, things like the New Deal were considered the center.

If these are centrist policies, then who needs liberals? Honestly--what more do you want?

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