Anonymous1 Why do great hitters with poor to average defense get in, while great defensive players with ave to poor hitting and great defensive numbers not get in?

Because hitting is so much more important than fielding. A run prevented does equal a run scored, but the greatest fielders don't prevent a many runs as even just good hitters create with their bats.

Let's look at Vizquel vs. Jeter.

No fielding stats are perfect, but when they all tend to agree on something, you can at least get the idea about guys. And they all agree Vizquel is great and Jeter isn't. Looking at some Baseball Prospectus metrics, Jeter is, for his career to date, including this year, -132 (minus 132) fielding runs above average. Which is to say 132 below average. That means he's allowed 132 runs to score that an average shortstop would have prevented. In his worst year, he let 23 runs score that an average shortstop would have prevented. In his best, last year, he was 14 runs better than average. Over 10-plus years, he's averaged letting in about 12 and a half runs an avg. SS would have prevented. A little over one win is what he's cost his team with his glove, per year.

Omar Vizquel, who's played seven years longer, is +114 FRAA. That's an average of about six and a half runs, a little over a half a win, a year over an average shortstop that Vizquel has prevented with his glove. That's tremendous. The difference between Jeter and Vizquel with the glove, on average for their career, has been about 18 runs per year, almost two wins for Vizquel's team that having Jeter would have cost them, just looking at fielding.

Now let's look at the hitting. There's a similar BP stat called Batting runs above average, meaning average for everyone, not just shortstops, but we're comparing them to the same thing so it's OK. Jeter is +340 for his career, about 32 runs per year better than the average SS. Vizquel is -53 for his career, about minus 3 per year. So the difference between them with their bats has been about 35 runs per year.

So, looking at their careers, which the Hall of Fame is supposed to do, trading Jeter for Vizquel would cost your team about 17 runs a year, a little over one and a half wins.

A note on career arc: Vizquel is 39 and Jeter 32, so we're measuring Vizquel's decline phase, which Jeter's just about entering. But on the other hand, Vizquel hasn't really declined much, and Jeter's fielding has actually improved the last two years. So if it's not a wash, it's close.

BP has another stat called WARP3 (wins above replacement, and the 3 indicates it's adjusted for all seasons, with their various offensive environments, ballpark combinations, etc.). It measures both hitting and fielding. I've been talking about above or below average. Above or below replacement measures the player against a theoretical baseline, what a borderline major leaguer, a guy freely available on the waiver wire, can be expected to do.

Jeter's WARP3 at the moment is 86.8, about 8.2 wins per year above a replacement-level shortstop, with five seasons over 8, three seasons over 9, two seasons over 10 and a high of 11.5.

Vizquel's WARP3 is 99.4. or about 5.6 per year. His career high is 7.9. So Vizquel not so much at his peak but in his career year was worth about 8 wins to his team above a replacement shortstop. Jeter right now has, so far this year, been worth nine and a half wins above a replacement shortstop. And there are 60 or so games to go. He has five seasons, so far, better than Vizquel's career year.

By the way, maybe I'm starting a war, but I'd take Vizquel in his prime over Jeter right now.

You wouldn't be starting a war with me. If I were a general manager, I'd love to have you in the same league!

For those of you who complain about the use of statistics to think about and talk about baseball, I apologize. Here's the analysis for you: Jeter is dreamy!!

Seriously, I think we're starting to reach a Jeter backlash tipping point.

He's been overrated for so long -- a modern-day DiMaggio, etc. -- and those who believe him to have been overrated have been arguing the point so vociferously for so long, he's starting to become underrated. Jeter's no DiMaggio, but he's a great player. The idea that Omar Vizquel was better is, well, it can only be the result of home-team bias and/or anti-Jeter backlash.

DiMaggio's batting runs above replacement, by the way, was 615, about 47 runs a year over an AVERAGE hitter, or about half again better than Jeter.